FXUS63 KPAH 030542 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1142 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - For tomorrow temperatures are trending warmer and precip lighter and later. Impacts (if any) look to be confined to a narrow window where rain may fall on sub-freezing surfaces amid above-freezing temperatures. - While temperatures will primarily be below normal Wednesday through Saturday, it won't be as cold as what we've experienced lately. Normal highs are in the mid 40s and normal lows are in the upper 20s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1138 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Updated the aviation section for the 06Z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 103 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Main focus in the short-term is on a system projected to move through tomorrow. A shortwave trough (currently over MT/ND/SD) will help spin up a weak surface low over the area tomorrow. The trends for precip seem lower than the last 12-24 hours, with slightly later onset times as well. Warming aloft coupled with above freezing surface temperatures across the area result in the majority of precip south of about Marion to Madisonville falling as plain rain, with perhaps a little bit of sleet mixed in north of there. Cold antecedent ground/pavement temperatures might allow for some impacts despite above freezing air temperatures, but the risk for that does still appear to be decreasing given today's temperatures and available data on actual sfc/soil temperatures. Colder air moves in behind this system and we drop back close to freezing for highs on Wednesday. A warming trend then emerges through the rest of the week with highs near, or slightly above normal. A fairly weak front then works towards the area this weekend with temperatures dropping back closer to 40 for highs but not putting us back too deep into the icebox. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1138 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Continued high clouds are likely to limit fog potential late tonight. MVFR cigs develop this morning with the arrival of light mixed precipitation. Some vsby drops are likely with precipitation and linger afterwards. IFR cigs are more likely in the afternoon hours in Western Kentucky and nearby portions of Southwest Indiana and Southeastern Illinois. VFR conditions returning in the north/west during the evening. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...ATL DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...ATL