FXUS63 KOAX 271959

AFDOAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

259 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Widespread rain chances (60-90% PoPs) tonight into Tuesday

  night. Highest rainfall totals of around an inch expected in

  western Iowa, with amounts decreasing with westward extent 

  across our area.



- Becoming breezy to windy Tuesday into Tuesday night, with

  gusts up to 35 to 40 mph.



- Continued cool into Saturday. Coldest nighttime temperatures

  are expected Friday night into Saturday morning, with freezing

  conditions at most locations.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Remainder of this afternoon through tonight:



Embedded within the base of broader-scale troughing over 

western Canada into the northern Rockies, early afternoon water 

vapor imagery and objective analysis show a shortwave trough and

attendant mid/upper-level wind maxima progressing through the 

Great Basin and central Rockies. Those features will continue

southeast tonight, contributing to significant height falls and

overall trough amplification in the central Plains. Meanwhile 

at the surface, a cold front currently located over western 

parts of SD and NE will advance into the western part of our 

area by daybreak Tuesday.



Low-level warm advection occurring ahead of the front is

contributing to widespread clouds and spotty, light drizzle 

this afternoon, with similar conditions continuing through the 

evening hours. Overnight, deepening/strengthening forcing for 

ascent ahead of the mid-level wave coupled with the approach of 

the cold front will support an increase in shower coverage and 

intensity (60-90% PoPs) from west-to-east across our area. Light

southeast winds ahead of the front will switch to northwest 

behind it.





Tuesday and Wednesday:



Further trough amplification is forecast on Tuesday, with a

closed mid-level low developing over the central Plains/mid and

lower-MO Valley region. In response, considerable strengthening

of the low-level wind field is expected within the post-frontal

air mass, with northerly, 850-mb winds strengthening to 50-55 

kts on Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. The development 

of a nocturnal inversion will likely inhibit full mixing of 

those winds to the surface. However, this forecast update will 

increase wind speeds Tuesday into Tuesday night, with gusts up 

to 35 to 40 mph appearing likely.



The evolution of the closed low will cause the ongoing

precipitation shield to effectively stall over far eastern NE

into western IA on Tuesday into Tuesday night (continued 60-90%

PoPs), with precipitation chances decreasing from north to south

on Wednesday. Cooler air will be pulled into our area from the

north, and there's some potential for a few snowflakes to mix 

with any lingering light rain in the far northwest part of our 

area late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning.



Highest precipitation totals (up to an inch) are forecast in 

western IA with decreasing amounts with westward extent across

our area.



Widespread clouds will limit daytime heating, with below-normal

highs in the upper 40s to low 50s expected both days.





Thursday through the weekend:



The 12z global models indicate another shortwave trough moving

through the northern Plains and mid-MO Valley on Thursday, 

ahead of a more significant system tracking through the north- 

central states into the MS Valley in the Friday-Saturday 

timeframe. Guidance suggests the possibility of some light 

precipitation in our area on Thursday and Saturday in 

association with those systems. This forecast update will 

maintain sub-15% PoPs, so that's something we'll be keeping an

eye on. Otherwise, daytime temperatures are expected to remain 

below-normal through Saturday, with some model signal for 

warmer conditions by Sunday. Coldest nighttime temperatures are 

forecast Friday night into Saturday morning, with freezing 

conditions across most of our area. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Prevailing MVFR conditions are forecast this afternoon, with the

potential for brief periods of light drizzle. Ceilings are

expected to lower to IFR tonight as showers move into the area

along with a cold front. Light southeast winds ahead of the

front will switch to northwest and strengthen behind the front.



&&



.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Mead

AVIATION...Mead