FXUS63 KOAX 270452 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1152 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread precipitation chances (60-85%) return Monday night into Tuesday. - Tuesday will be cool with breezy northwesterly winds and widespread rain showers. - Areas of east-central Nebraska may see freezing temperatures Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 A deep cutoff low continues to idly meander east across northern Oklahoma wrapping Gulf moisture into the southern-Missouri River valley. Showers have remained well south of the CWA, just managing to approach the KC metro this afternoon. Expect this CWA to remain dry for the next 24 hours. Water vapor imagery alludes to that upper low to our south slowly losing its influence over the area as a negatively tilted trof over the PACNW continues east. A shortwave working through the central Rockies overnight will round the trof and bring a chance of rain and thunder to the Nebraska panhandle and western Dakotas overnight. It's passing too far to our west to bring any precip chances to eastern Nebraska or Iowa. The primary concern here overnight will be another night of FOG WATCH. As has been the case, guidance keeps fog across Kansas and central Nebraska with this forecast area's edges being edge cases. As the fog has been 'out performing' guidance, I'd expect to see fog as far east as Lincoln, Columbus and/or Norfolk by sunrise. Dense fog isn't expected, but visibility may slip to 3-4 miles. .MONDAY and TUESDAY... Lee cyclogenesis develops another sfc low in Colorado and will increase our chances of rain for Monday night and Tuesday. Likely PoPs are warranted as the cold front and surface low push through late Monday night. PoPs (60-85%) are climbing alongside forecaster confidence. QPF values have also been pushed higher (1/3 to 2/3 inch). NBM probabilities for specific amounts suggest 0.25" is a safe bet (70-80%) with a shot at a needed 1.00", especially along the Missouri River and points east (40-50%). Isobars will be tight. Gusts of 35-40 mph are possible on the western edges of the CWA on Tuesday... just shy of wind advisory criteria. These numbers tend to creep up as the system approaches. The day will be cool with the day starting in the 40s, rain tapering through the day, highs within a few degrees of 50, and wind chills in the low forties. Yup! Wind chills. .REST OF THE TIME... Most guidance keeps Wednesday dry, but TROWAL could maintain some light precip chances and regardless, widespread cloud cover in place keeps Wednesday cool with highs about 5-10 degrees below normal. Temperatures slowly moderate over the remainder of the forecast with global models interrupting a building ridge with a shallow and progressive cutoff low pushing out of Manitoba and into central Iowa by the end of next week. The system would likely be moisture starved, but could keep temps from warming all that much for November's first weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 MVFR conditions are observed early this TAF period at KOFK and KLNK, while KOMA sits at VFR. Ceilings will deteriorate at all three terminals early in the TAF period, so have kept mentions and refined timing of ceiling arrival. IFR ceilings will persist for much of the morning hours Monday at the three terminals. KLNK may experience brief LIFR reductions from 14z to 16z, but have held off on mentions for now as guidance still keeps these ceilings just west of the terminal. Ceilings briefly rise to MVFR in the late afternoon before more IFR restrictions return to end the TAF period. Have kept mentions of gusty southeast winds at KOFK and KOMA after 15z, and alsoadded -SHRA mentions at KOFK and KLNK after 01z as a front with scattered showers will move through late in the period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Castillo