FXUS63 KOAX 221046 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 546 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty northerly winds of 25 to 30 mph with 35 to 40 mph gusts expected this morning, before tapering off in the evening hours. Areas of very high fire danger persist over eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa today. - Cooler today with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. - Warming trend returns for Monday through Thursday, with fire weather concerns expected Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/ 04z GOES-19 nighttime microphysics shows a few high based clouds approaching the area from the west. Temperatures remain rather warm at this hour with most locations in the upper 60s and low 70s. 04z METARs show a sfc cold front quickly approaching the area from the north, with its location approximately located along a line from near Storm Lake, Iowa toward Sioux City, Iowa, to Valentine, Nebraska. As the front pushes further south into the forecast area, should see strong cold advection result in temps plummeting to 40s to low 50s for most locations. The strong subsidence from the cold air should help push down to the sfc a relatively narrow 30-35kt corridor of momentum from near H9 and H8. This will result in gusty northerly wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph near and behind the frontal boundary early this morning. While relative humidity is expected to improve to 30 to 50% near and behind the front, the extremely dry and cured fuels will still lead to some fire weather concerns through at least the early morning hours, so have continued the Red Flag Warning through 4am. Expect dry conditions during the frontal passage with only low to mid level cloudiness. Winds will remain gusty through the late morning hours as we'll still have cold advection/subsidence helping bring down the narrow corridor of low level winds. Despite relative humidity in the mid 60% range, areas southwest of a line from near Seward to Hickman to Nemaha may flirt with Red Flag Warning criteria for a 2 to 3 hr duration after 15z given the northwest gusts of 35 to 40 mph over the area coupled with the extremely dry fuels. It's worth noting that the cloud cover over the area could hamper the amount of mixing we achieve. Regardless, still expect areas of very high fire danger in eastern Nebraska into southwest Iowa for today. Highs will be noticeably cooler in the mid 50s to low 60s. Winds largely subside after 7pm and lows cool to the upper 20s to low 30s. Late Sunday into Monday, a shortwave trof will approach the area from the west. This feature will try to generate some light rain showers over the area Monday morning into the afternoon, but BUFKIT soundings show very little if any low level saturation below 3km so not really thinking much of this will reach the sfc. Have kept low NBM PoPs of only 15 to 25% for light rain Monday afternoon mainly northwest of a line from near Malcom to Decatur. Highs Monday reach the mid 50s under mostly cloudy skies, while lows cool to the mid 30s. .LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/ Another warming trend is expected to take place Tuesday through Thursday as the 1000-500 mb thermal ridge once again builds into the region. Expect highs to reach the 60s and 70s Tuesday, mid 70s to low 80s Wednesday, and slightly cooler temps for Thursday. The combination of dry and warm weather will lead to fire weather concerns, particularly Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday appears to be the day with most concern as northerly winds of 20 to 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph overspread much of the forecast area as a sfc front pushes through. Global models suggest another H5 disturbance entering the area lateThursday into Friday morning resulting in 20 to 40% chance for a rain/snow mix. Temperatures for Friday remain in the 50s and warm to near 60F by Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 543 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period, with gusty winds being the primary concern. Northerly winds will continue at 18-23 kts with gusts of 29-34 kts into the afternoon. Winds will gradually calm into the late afternoon and early evening, dipping under 12 kts by 23/00-02Z. A deck of MVFR ceilings may push into northeast Nebraska later this morning, but is expected to remain north of KOFK. Otherwise, mid-level clouds will pass by through the day. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...Wood