FXUS63 KOAX 092053 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 353 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to windy and dry conditions will lead to increasing fire danger in northeast Nebraska Sunday into the middle next week, with Wednesday being the warmest and windiest. - Above-normal temperatures for the next week. - A chance (15-35%) of showers and thunderstorms in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe, mainly in northeast Nebraska. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Today and Tomorrow: Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to feature the complex mid/upper pattern across the eastern half of the CONUS, with a deepening low spinning over the Gulf Coast, while a mature trough ejects across New England. Zooming in locally with a recent surface analysis, a weak surface trough oriented from south to north is moving through eastern Nebraska while another approaches from South Dakota -- this one with deeper cloud cover and a storm or two along its length. This front will continue pushing to the southeast over the course of the afternoon and evening, and will bring the only short-term, low-end (~15%) chances for a shower/storm to northeast Nebraska. Better chances lie to the north and west, where a weak mid- level shortwave and better instability lie, but it's not out of the question locally. Once those storm chances die out around 11 PM, we'll have decreasing clouds and winds continuing to shift in direction while temperatures fall into the lower 50s. Saturday will see continued light winds, highs with a slight bump up over the previous day and still in the 80s, with dry weather expected. Sunday and Beyond: The main concern of the forecast period arrives in the form of fire danger thanks to strong winds and well-above normal temperatures. Much of the forecast area has been able to green up considerably, but areas of northeast Nebraska along and west of Highway 81 have seen the worst of the 30-day rainfall deficits from normal. Highs Sunday through Wednesday will be reaching the upper 80s to just over 90 degrees peaking when the building thermal ridge that stays over the High Plains Sunday through Tuesday departs through the area Wednesday. As it sits right now, we're not near any records for this stretch, but some areas of South Dakota and North Dakota are near record highs. Focusing in on the winds and relative humidity values, gusts are expected to climb each afternoon into the 25 to 35 mph range Sunday through Tuesday, with winds of 30-45 mph possible Wednesday (all generally out of the south until a front moves through late Wednesday). Relative humidity values are expected to bottom out in the 15-25% range in northeast Nebraska. Areas west of Highway 81 will likely see very high to extreme fire danger, and will likely need a Red Flag Warning as we approach. Aside from the fire danger, global deterministic models suggest the blocking low over the Gulf Coast finally relenting Tuesday, allowing a trough to push towards the forecast area Wednesday and Thursday (the same feature that brings the warmest temperatures and stronger winds). We'll continue to be dry RH-wise as any rain chances move through with this trough, but storms that do form will rain into a well-mixed boundary layer and could produce damaging gusts. For now, we'll be focusing on the higher likelihood fire danger and keep an eye on the severe chances, but rain does look to be on the horizon for at least a solid chunk of the forecast area next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the period, with winds swinging 360 degrees through the next 24 hours. Clouds will be few and far between initially, with a few mid/high level ones drifting southeast overnight. Wind speeds should remain below 10 kts, and directions will slowly rotate nearly 360 degrees over the next 24 hours. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...Petersen