FXUS63 KOAX 091717

AFDOAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

1217 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Breezy to windy and dry conditions will lead to increasing

  fire danger in northeast Nebraska Sunday into the middle next

  week.



- Above-normal temperatures for the next week.

 

- A chance (15-35%) of showers and thunderstorms in the

  Wednesday-Thursday timeframe, mainly in northeast Nebraska.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Today through Sunday:



A high-amplitude and complex blocking pattern currently being

observed over the CONUS will transition to more of a Rex-type 

block by Sunday. On the northern periphery of that pattern, a 

shortwave trough currently moving through the Canadian prairie 

provinces will drive a weak surface front to the vicinity of the

SD-NE border by this evening. While some of the CAMs indicate 

the potential for isolated shower and/or thunderstorm 

development along the boundary, forecast soundings indicate a 

rather dry air mass with only a shallow layer of positive 

buoyancy. As such, a dry forecast will be maintained.



The tendency for building mid-level heights from the Rockies

into north-central states will translate to warmer daytime 

temperatures with highs largely in the 80s. By Sunday, a

deepening lee trough over the High Plains will support

strengthening south winds with highest gusts of 30-35 mph 

forecast across northeast NE. The strong winds will coincide 

with afternoon RH 18-20% to create very high to potentially 

extreme fire danger along and west of a line from Hartington to 

Columbus where green up has been slowed by the lack of spring 

rainfall.





Next Week:



The primary feature of interest is a prominent mid-level trough,

which is forecast to move through the Interior West early next

week before emerging into the northern Plains in the Wednesday-

Thursday timeframe. An associated surface low and lee trough 

will be maintained over the High Plains early in the week, with

those features eventually progressing east across the northern 

and central Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night. That

large-scale pattern evolution will support continued, gusty

south winds and wildfire concerns in the northwest part of our

area.



Temperatures will remain above-normal, with highs mainly in the

80s. It will remain dry, at least through Tuesday, with

increasing shower and thunderstorm chances (15-35% PoPs)

Wednesday into Thursday across the northern part of our area. Various

GEFS-based machine-learning guidance indicate an increasing

probability for severe storms at that time, so that's something

we will be monitoring.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



VFR conditions are expected through the period, with winds

swinging 360 degrees through the next 24 hours. Clouds will be

few and far between initially, with a few mid/high level ones

drifting southeast overnight. Wind speeds should remain below 10

kts, and directions will slowly rotate nearly 360 degrees over

the next 24 hours. 



&&



.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Mead

AVIATION...Petersen