FXUS63 KOAX 090414

AFDOAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

1114 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Windy and dry conditions will lead to increasing fire danger

  in northeast Nebraska Sunday into early next week.



- The next seven days will be the warmest period of the season

  so far.

 

- Mostly dry conditions are expected through the 7 day forecast.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



Take a moment to appreciate today's beautiful weather. 



* Northeasterly winds are pleasant with an axis of surface high

  pressure draped from the Great Lakes through Iowa and 

  Nebraska to the high country of Colorado. 

* Temperatures are in the 70s early this afternoon. Those are

  the numbers I set enter into my thermostat. In other words, I

  have a machine in my home that allows me to choose any ambient

  temperature for my home and I choose the numbers that are 

  outdoors right now.

  

* Skies are sunny with subsidence in the area. A quick search on

  my music app shows at least 20 albums named "Sunny Skies". 



If you're among the many that appreciate this type of weather,

you're going to appreciate the forecast and what I'm assuming

will be a short AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION. 



Upper-air analysis reveals a Rex block over the central US which

is half common for May. An omega block has lost its southern low

and transitioned into a Rex block but together they've left the

pattern stagnant. It will remain that way for a while. As winds

decouple under the clear skies tonight, temps will slip into the

upper 40s with some locations near the SoDak border holding onto

50F. 



Temperatures do warm tomorrow as winds become southerly in

response to the surface high shifting east. This will push daily

maximums into the 80s and they'll remain that way through the

remainder of the forecast. 



A front slides south out of the Dakotas on Saturday but washes

out as it passes and/or settles near the SD/NE border. Temps

should see little impact. Some locations, including Omaha, may

hit 90F for the first time this year. Some locations, including

Lincoln, have already managed that feat.



As the H5 pattern breaks down and meanders east this weekend, 

a thermal ridge noses into the Central Plains bringing southerly

flow and even warmer temperatures. A low-level jet develops on 

Saturday night keeping the BL mixed and temperatures warmer 

than they have been. This will mark the beginning of a breezy 

period.



Sunday through as long as even Wednesday will bring breezy

afternoons to the area. This and warm temperatures will

exacerbate fire concerns where fuels are still cured. For this

CWA the most flammable grasses and weeds are in far northeast

Nebraska according to our fire partners. Barring major changes

to the forecast, fire headlines look likely. 



Thursday's chance for showers is a week out and tied to a

possible cut-off low working through the northern CONUS. Please

don't count on a day seven's 30% chance of precip to keep your 

begonias happy. If you expect your garden, grass, and thumb to

keep its green hue, you'll have to rely on irrigation.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southeasterly 

winds may become variable Friday morning as a weak boundary

drifts through the region. Southeasterly flow becomes more

dominant once again Friday afternoon and evening. Wind speeds 

should remain under 12 kts throughout the day Friday.



&&



.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen

AVIATION...KG