FXUS63 KOAX 071053 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 553 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated frost may develop this morning primarily in northeast Nebraska. Chances for an areawide frost remain low. - Dry conditions largely expected for Friday with little threat (10-14% chance) for some rain/sprinkles. - Warmer temperatures expected Friday and Saturday with highs in the 70s and 80s. A 50 to 60% chance for showers and storms has shifted farther south toward the Nebraska/Kansas border area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1057 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 04z RAP objective analysis shows the H5 longwave trof dominating portions of the Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes and into Canada. The feature places much of Nebraska and Iowa within northwest flow, and should see a shortwave within this flow track to our northeast this morning. The weak forcing from the wave combined with H7-H8 low level thermal advection may help force a few weak showers across our far northern and northeastern border areas, but forecast soundings struggle to saturate anything below 10kft, so only expecting some mid to high based clouds in those areas. Southwest sfc winds of 5 to 10 mph in the early morning hours should help limit frost potential for most locations along with slightly warmer lows above freezing. Lingering cloud cover over our very far northern and northeastern areas too may help reduce the frost threat in those locations. For the rest of Thursday, should see mostly sunny conditions with temperatures warming to the upper 60s to low 70s for most areas as H8 warm air advection overspreads much of the region. Expect southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with some gustiness up to 25 mph mainly south of the Platte River. A sfc boundary pushes through by the evening hours, switching winds to the northwest. Northwest flow aloft will bring yet another weak shortwave through the area by the late evening. Various CAM guidance suggests some light rain showers over the area thereafter into the early morning hours of Friday, but once again, the dry air wins with forecast BUFKIT soundings showing little if any saturation below 10kft. At this time, PoPs remain unmentionable at 10-14%. Lows Thursday night reach the low to mid 40s. Temperatures warm to the mid 70s areawide by Friday afternoon with dry conditions and northwesterly winds. Lows Friday night cool to the mid to upper 40s. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Model guidance indicates that a shortwave trof will eject from the Pacific Northwest toward the Northern Plains Saturday. By the afternoon hours, the feature will be right at our doorstep. Farther to our northeast, the closed H5 low will intensify with sfc cyclogenesis ensuing. The associated cold front will extend from the sfc feature west southwest into much of Iowa and southern Nebraska. The front may trigger some scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder over the southern half of our service area, with the highest chances (50-60% PoPs) largely confined along the Kansas/Nebraska border in the late afternoon and evening hours. The latest NBM run seems to be in agreement with ensembles which are trending the precip farther south. LREF ensembles suggest a 30 to 60% chance for wetting precip primarily south of a line from near York to Lincoln to Clarinda, IA, with the GEFS being the northernmost member. Highs Saturday warm to the upper 70s to low 80s. Rain chances taper off by early Sunday morning leaving behind a mix of clouds and sun as temperatures reach the low 70s. Highs rebound though for the first half of the work week as the 1000-500 mb thermal ridge begins to build and amplify over the Northern Plains. Expect highs to reach the low to mid 80s Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. A passing H5 wave and sfc low late Monday into Tuesday may trigger a few scattered showers and storms, but chances remain at 15 to 25% with the highest chances primarily across western Iowa. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 549 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026 Winds will be veering over the course of the day today, as the direction that wind is coming from will be changing in a counter-clockwise direction. Southwesterly winds in the morning will be westerly by noon and northwesterly by sunset. Mostly clear skies are forecast through the day today as VFR conditions persist. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...Nicolaisen