FXUS63 KOAX 061848

AFDOAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

148 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Widespread frost is looking less likely tonight, as a shift to

  southwesterly winds overnight and dry conditions limit

  widespread chances.



- A low chance (10-15%) of showers is expected Friday morning,

  limited by dry air.



- High temperatures will gradually rise back into the 70s to low

  80s by the end of the work week, with additional rain chances

  (30-60%) Saturday that favor southeast Nebraska and far 

  southern Iowa.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Today and Tonight:



Water vapor imagery this afternoon does a fine job illustrating the 

largely depressed mid/upper pattern that continues to shunt most of 

the country's weather activity to its far east and southeastern-most 

tiers of states, while a shortwave continues to move southeastward 

into the Front Range of the Rockies. With Nebraska and Iowa being on 

the interior side of the mid/upper trough, cooler-than-average highs 

continue today, topping out in the upper 50s to low 60s as breezy 

northwesterly winds continue. The main challenge of the short-term 

forecast remains frost potential overnight, as lows fall to near 

freezing and winds lighten up. The three things that will discourage 

frost potential will be southerly winds that increase to 5-10 

mph after 1 AM, a lack of surface moisture as dewpoint 

temperatures range in the low-to-mid 20s, and overnight 

temperatures that may over just above freezing. With those 

factors in mind, we are currently going without a Frost Advisory

for the overnight hours, with no strong overlap of favorable 

conditions before winds increase early tomorrow. 



Thursday and Beyond:



Stepping forward into Thursday, dry surface conditions and 

temperatures near climatological normal (which for this time of year 

is 68-72 degrees). Another wind shift/frontal passage will occur 

during the afternoon hours as a shortwave scoots through the 

northwesterly mid/upper flow. As this happens, expect increased

cloud cover, but continued dry conditions as low-level dry air 

proves to be too much for any hopeful rain drops trying to reach

the ground. Highs are on tap to reach the low-to-mid 70s 

Thursday, and will only climb heading into the weekend before 

topping out Saturday in the upper 70s to just over 80 degrees. 

Our dry spell will be tested Saturday, where the weakening 

influence of the broad trough to the north attempts to steer a 

compact shortwave heading through the northwesterly flow. Latest

trends in the global deterministic models has crept the axis of

rainfall southward, primarily just north of or along the 

Nebraska/Kansas border (great for weekend outdoor events, but 

not great for catching up for lost rainfall). With its passage, 

we'll see a cooler but near-normal Sunday, with rainfall chances

staying away from the forecast area. 



Monday into the middle of the upcoming work week has strong support 

for a building, negatively-tilted ridge over the western third of 

the CONUS while the eastern third sees shortwaves replacing one 

another to maintain a trough over that section. Highs will once 

again surge into the upper 70s and 80s across the forecast area, 

only being interrupted by weak shortwaves through the work week that 

will keep us from warming too much before coming back down to near 

normal.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



VFR conditions will carry us through the TAF period, with

northwesterly winds with intermittent gusts reaching near to

just over 20 kts underneath mid-level clouds. Winds will

diminish quickly after 00z, becoming going from northwesterly to

variable for a few hours before directions all fall in line out

ofthe southwest overnight. Winds will remain increase slightly

in speed after 06z, with gusts returning for KLNK during the

early morning hours. towards the end of the TAF period and just

after, winds will be undergoing another direction change to be

northwesterly once again mid-afternoon Thursday.



&&



.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Petersen

AVIATION...Pearson