FXUS63 KOAX 051726

AFDOAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue through the

  morning hours, clearing later this afternoon.



- Milder temperatures through Thursday warming back up going

  into the weekend. Seasonably warm weather expected over the 

  weekend.



- Wildfire smoke continues to drift in from the north. A small

  amount may be found at the surface. Most will be elevated and

  may produce some hazy skies.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 956 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026



We have a lull in storm activity this evening. Looking at

the surface analysis, the cold front has stalled south of the 

Kansas state line as high pressure has spread across eastern 

Nebraska. Over the next few hours we'll see the nocturnal low- 

level jet ramp up triggering more showers and storms north of 

the surface front in a region with moderate elevated instability

and 40-50 kt of shear through the cloud layer. This could lead 

to some more organized storm development capable of producing 

quarter-size hail and strong to damaging winds in addition to 

locally heavy rainfall. While the severe threat still seems 

fairly marginal, it will greatly depend on the amount of 

elevated instability can be generated as the LLJ advects warmer 

air just above the frontal boundary while the Canadian High 

pulls cooler air south. 



Expect storms to start to redevelop around 11pm along a 

corridor near and just south of I-80, rapidly expanding in 

coverage and tracking east into Iowa overnight. Storm motions 

parallel to the front would support some training of storms 

overnight which could lead to localized flash flooding, 

especially over our southwest Iowa counties into Wednesday 

morning. Once the first round clears around 7am, CAMs show a 

potential second wave that will move in shortly after, bringing 

a more scattered chance for mostly showers at this point. The 

nocturnal low-level jet should be waning, decreasing any 

elevated instability we have left that isn't chewed through by 

the overnight storms. Rain chances should taper off through the 

afternoon.



Taking a step back and looking at the upper-level pattern, we're

seeing a trough in the jet stream pull this Canadian air mass

south into the Central Plains, and these storms are developing

on the southern edge of this air mass. Wednesday night into

Thursday we'll start to see this Canadian surface high slide

eastward, bringing back southerly low-level flow while the ridge

over the Desert Southwest starts to expand eastward. This will

start our warming trend going into the weekend. Temperatures

will still be very pleasant on Thursday with highs in the low-

to-mid 80s. Temperatures will get warmer each day going into the

weekend with southerly flow only strengthening ahead of a

developing area of low pressure on the lee-side of the Rockies.

This will amplify the low-level jet Friday into Saturday

helping push temperatures back into the upper 80s to low 90s for

highs over the weekend. 



With a strong nocturnal low-level jet in place as well as active

and diffluent northwesterly flow at the jet level, we could see

a chance for nocturnal storms return Saturday night into Sunday,

and again with a more substantial shortwave Sunday night into

Monday. The pattern going into next week looks to hold fairly

steady, characterized by a ridge over the Desert Southwest and 

a broad trough over the Ohio River Valley. This should keep us 

in the transition zone under northwesterly flow aloft, giving us

seasonably warm temperatures and more chances for showers and 

storms through the week. This is reflected in the CPC's 6-10 day

outlook by a forecast leaning warmer and wetter.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issuedat 1218 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



Pesky IFR ceilings have been hanging around at KOMA/KLNK a bit

longer than initially anticipated, with those expected to lift

over the next hour in favor of MVFR ceilings that scatter out

shortly thereafter. Aside from the low clouds, another layer

sits well above them with some low-end chances for rain (15%) at

KLNK through 20z. Winds will remain light into the evening with

growing confidence in fog development at KOMA/KLNK with the

latest timing in the TAFs. If confidence continues to increase,

expect to see worse conditions (IFR or worse) incorporated in

future issuances.



&&



.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...McCoy

AVIATION...Petersen