FXUS63 KOAX 051130 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 530 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain chances tonight into Thursday (10-20% chance). - Cooler through Friday with some areas struggling to get out of the 40s. 50s and 60s return this weekend. - Temperatures will drop below freezing in northeast Nebraska on Friday morning and across most of the area Saturday morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1021 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 Tonight through Friday: Satellite imagery this evening shows the larger weather-making trough to our east continue to shift eastward while lift associated with it joining a shortwave entering the Central Plains from the Front Range of the Rockies. The 00z OAX observed sounding features a shallow boundary layer with decently steep lapse rates -- to the point where they're contributing to some sprinkle chances and dots on the windshield for many this evening. Those chance increase as the cloud depth increases, with nighttime RGB imagery showing that the best lift is gradually pivoting southward from SD/MN. Temperatures turn chilly tonight as those sprinkles and areas of drizzle move through, with most locations having a 10-20% chance at best to see something measurable. Just off the deck, winds are swift with a few gusts of 30+ kts sneaking through the inversion already this evening. Those speeds certainly won't be reached regularly, but we've given a bit of a nudge upward in wind speeds to match through the morning hours tomorrow. By sunrise, the low-end chances for a sprinkle or two will still be lingering across southeast Nebraska, pointing into Iowa before receding to the ENE. Cloud cover will still linger if forecast soundings are to be believed, making for continued cool and dreary days that end up on the dry side for us. Forecast highs could see a bit of a dip compared to what we have in there if the cloud cover is thick enough, and overnight lows could stay a bit warmer as well. The next aspect of the forecast to check out would be those overnight lows Thursday night heading into Friday, specifically the likelihood of reaching freezing or below. Comparing the NBM's chances of hitting freezing against the larger EPS/NAEFS members, the influence of the cloud coverage is being undersold and you'll have to travel a bit farther to the northwest to hit freezing (with better than 50% odds starting along a line from Columbus to Wayne. Areas to the southeast will have to wait until Friday night into Saturday morning to see a shot at freezing, as widespread lows close to 30 degrees area forecast. Double check outdoor hoses and plants to minimize any damage, we're pretty behind in terms of the cold, I'd bet there are plenty of sprinklers/watering hoses that still need to be put away/winterized. Saturday and Beyond: After a chilly morning, the busier mid/upper pattern that has been overhead will begin turning a bit warmer as mid/upper ridging builds in from the northwest. Clearing skies will work with the building thermal ridge to the west to help us reach back into the 50s Saturday and into the 60s Sunday, making for an excellent weekend to enjoy any fall activity that the heart desires. That warming carries forward one more day into the upcoming work week, with highs reaching near 70 near the KS border, cooling into the middle of next week as the upper pattern returns to zonal flow. Dry conditions may carry us through the remainder of the week as well, with model guidance showing little to stir precipitation chances and a nod towards seasonably warm temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 MVFR cigs continue to persist in areas along the Missouri River eastward this morning. This will hold through the next several hours as we watch a bank of low clouds move in from the north, bringing 800-1200ft cigs into KOFK around 15Z. These once again have about a 50/50 chance of whether they make it down into KLNK, but most certainly will reinforce cigs at KOMA. Forecast gets more uncertain as we go into the afternoon, with models trending toward low clouds hanging around longer if not holding the entire day at sites like KOFK and KOMA. Still about a 60% chance we see these low clouds clear from west to east this afternoon. Though we're forecasting VFR conditions into the evening, confidence is increasing that low clouds will move back in overnight, with cigs again between 800-1500ft. KLNK will likely see these low clouds move in as well overnight. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...McCoy