FXUS63 KOAX 020545 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of fog developing overnight, some of which could be dense, limiting visibilities to less than half a mile. - Periodic, low precipitation chances (15-30%) Monday night through Tuesday night. A wintry mix could fall at times, but is currently favored to remain light with little to no impact. - Mild temperatures stick around this week, with highs in the 30s and 40s through Wednesday and 40s and 50s from Thursday through Saturday. These warmer temperatures could allow river ice to break up and move, increasing the risk of ice jams. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 Tonight and Monday: Overnight snowfall is quickly disappearing this afternoon as temperatures have warmed into the 40s as of 2 PM. A shield of low clouds is gradually overspreading northeast NE and western IA with latest model data suggesting the clouds will remain in the same general vicinity overnight. To the south of the clouds and in locations of recent snow melt, decreasing winds will allow for fog formation late tonight into Monday morning with visibilities falling below a half mile at some locations. The morning fog and lingering clouds will slow heating Monday with highs topping out in the 30s to low 40s. Monday night through Wednesday: The 12z global models remain in good agreement in the progression of a shortwave trough through the mid-MO Valley Monday night into Tuesday morning, followed by additional vorticity maxima from Tuesday into Wednesday. Associated QPF fields remain light and spotty in our area, which is consistent with the low PoPs of 15-30% indicated in the forecast. Forecast soundings show periods of deepening saturation in the lowest 5-10 kft, but below the level of ice introduction. As such, the potential will exist for a wintry mix to fall during periods when boundary-layer temperatures remain below freezing. However, any precipitation is expected to remain light and not cause an impact to travel. Daytime highs could be limited by cloud cover in some areas with readings in the 30s Tuesday, and 30s to low 40s and Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday: An amplified mid-level ridge positioned over the western U.S. Thursday morning is forecast to weaken while shifting into the central U.S. this weekend. In the low levels, westerly, downslope winds Thursday will contribute to considerably warmer temperatures with highs in the 50s forecast at many locations. The models indicate a front moving through the area Friday with highs mainly in the 40s. Similar conditions are expected Saturday. The warmer daytime temperatures will begin to affect ice cover/depth on area rivers. However, with overnight lows remaining below freezing and no rain in the forecast, the ice break up could be a gradual process. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1136 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 Main concern for the fist half of the TAF period continues to be the possibility for fog, which the latest guidance suggests is becoming less likely. Temperatures will still tank along a line from KOFK to KLNK, where our chances for dense fog are highest (20-30% chance), with areas of patchy fog in between. To the northeast near KOMA, the deck of MVFR ceilings will continue to move eastward slowly, and should leave KOMA VFR near 08z or shortly after. Winds will be very light overnight, and waffle in direction some, generally out of the west. After 12z tomorrow morning, winds will shift east-southeasterly while staying light, with additional bouts of MVFR ceilings affecting KOMA and KOFK until 18-21z while KLNK stays VFR. Towards the end of the TAF period, another chance at some light snow/drizzle, but we're waiting for a steady signal before including it in the TAFs. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Petersen