FXUS63 KMQT 271740 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 140 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather continues through most of the work week, then chances for showers increase Thursday night into the weekend. No significant weather impacts are expected over the next seven days. - Slightly above normal temperatures gradually return near normal by this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Quiet weather persists in Michigan's Upper Peninsula as the upper level ridge axis stretches from Lake Superior upwards to James Bay and ~1033mb sfc high pressure extends back from southern Quebec SW into the Great Lakes. Closer to home, early afternoon temperatures have settled into the upper 40s to low 50s amidst breezy S to SE flow. Tonight, temps fall back into the upper 20s and low 30s. Patchy fog and freezing fog is again possible (20% chance) around and just after sunrise across the interior central UP, as seen the last few nights. Impacts associated with freezing fog are not anticipated, but take caution traveling through areas of reduced visibility. Dry weather is expected to continue through much of the work week as the aforementioned upper ridge slowly meanders NE having been pinched off by a trough descending through the Plains and a weak retrograding vort lobe overhead New England. A frontal boundary along this descending Plain trough will attempt to sneak eastward into the Great Lakes tomorrow, but will be stopped in its tracks by the forcefield made up of antecedent dry conditions and strong high pressure in Quebec holding its influence over the region. Through Wednesday, this trough dips south before closing off in southern Appalachia. Though 850mb temps may be marginally cold enough for lake effect clouds, dry sub-cloud layers in model soundings suggest no precip through this midweek period. Guidance has come into good agreement on the evolution of the mid to late week period. Thursday, the deep trough now over the Tennessee Valley will begin to phase with a weak in the lower Great Lakes and swing north, sending a deepening sfc low through the western Appalachian Mtns and into the Lower Lakes by earlier Friday. This sfc low track should keep synoptically forced precip outside of the CWA, however, reinforced cold 850mb temps roughly -2 to -5C should uptick lake effect PoPs late Thursday into Friday, and even more so into Saturday as mid- level temps potentially fall as low as -6 to -9C with the help of a additional shortwaves pressing through the region. Cant rule out snow/graupel mixing in, especially in areas of high terrain. At this time, no accumulations are expected, though if colder solutions and more persistent lake effect showers are realized, could see some light measurable snow amounts this weekend into early next week. Ensembles suggest continued Midwest/eastern US troughing into the following week, keeping active weather in the forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 High pressure maintains predominantly VFR conditions across Upper Michigan this afternoon, with visible satellite depicting clear skies over the west and broken mid level cloud cover across the central and eastern UP. Low level upslope flow is helping to produce some localized MVFR cigs in the vicinity of KSAW, but expect this to be short lived as cloud cover scatters out through 20-21z. Otherwise, southeast winds around 10 kt expected at most sites, diminishing slightly after sunset. These winds should help to mitigate any fog development overnight as VFR conditions hold into Tue morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 414 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Southerly winds hold mainly 20 kts or less until this afternoon when winds back southeast and increase to 20-25 kts over the central third of the lake. Winds become 15-25 kts lakewide tonight. The strongest winds are expected over the north central and eastern international border waters where there is a 25-50% chance for wind gusts between 25-30 kts. 15-25 kt winds back east-southeast on tomorrow, then gradually fall below 20 kts by Wednesday morning out of the east. Mainly 15 kt winds or lower are expected Wednesday through Thursday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...CB MARINE...BW/77