FXUS63 KMQT 271129 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 729 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather continues through most of the work week, then chances for showers increase Thursday night into the weekend. No significant weather impacts are expected over the next seven days. - Slightly above normal temperatures gradually return near normal by this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 414 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Early morning RAP analysis and GOES water vapor imagery show the mid level ridge now positioned over the Upper Great Lakes, surrounded by three troughs. Broad troughing expanding the northwest CONUS and much of southwestern Canada supports a 989 mb low over Saskatchewan. A frontal boundary extending down into the Dakotas continues shower development well to the west. A closed low is present over New England and a smaller trough is over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. As a result of the ridging continuing to extend overhead from the 1033 mb high over Quebec, clear skies are noted across most of the Great Lakes basin. This will continue to let temps settle into the upper 20s to mid 30s where winds are calm, particularly the central UP. Mid 30s to low 40s are expected elsewhere early this morning. Patchy fog has developed in the calm areas. While some isolated spots of freezing fog are likely (60% chance), impacts are not expected from icing. What will be more of an issue is the visibility dropping down to 1/4 mi at times, so take it slow when driving through fog! The western trough deepens over the Plains through Monday night, pressing the frontal boundary and rain showers east toward Minnesota. Meanwhile, the southern trough fizzles out as it moves east and the eastern closed low elongates west to east. Tuesday through Wednesday, the western trough splits with the northern portion heading toward Hudson Bay and the southern portion of the wave diving to the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This continues to push the boundary closer to the CWA, but the high pressure and associated antecedent dry airmass overhead prevents these showers from reaching the UP. High pressure slightly reinvigorates overhead Tuesday night into Wednesday as a mid level ridge begins to nose into the Midwest and the now closed low over the Tennessee Valley develops a surface low. Marginally cold enough delta-Ts for lake effect with the support of easterly upslope flow increases cloud cover during this period, but left precip mention out for now as model soundings are hit and miss on available moisture. Widespread PoPs don't increase until Thursday night, continuing into the weekend as the strong stacked lows quickly lift northeast along the Atlantic Coast. Another trough tracks southeast from the Canadian Prairie on Thursday, bringing a weak surface low with it which phases overhead on Friday with the much deeper low to the east. While some spread in the ensembles on how the deep east coast low tracks remains, the general consensus is for the synoptic precip to remain outside the CWA. That said, shower activity increases over the weekend as colder northerly flow arrives. 850mb temps of -5 to -8 will be more than sufficient for lake effect showers, and additional shortwaves traversing overhead from the northwest support precip chances into next week. This also brings temps back to near normal by the weekend with highs in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to 30s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 728 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 High pressure will continue to bring VFR conditions to the region through the TAF period. Southeast winds will gust up to 20 kts at CMX this afternoon but diminish around sunset. Southerly winds should remain high enough tonight to mitigate any fog development. && .MARINE... Issued at 414 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Southerly winds hold mainly 20 kts or less until this afternoon when winds back southeast and increase to 20-25 kts over the central third of the lake. Winds become 15-25 kts lakewide tonight. The strongest winds are expected over the north central and eastern international border waters where there is a 25-50% chance for wind gusts between 25-30 kts. 15-25 kt winds back east-southeast on Tuesday, then gradually fall below 20 kts by Wednesday morning out of the east. Mainly 15 kt winds or lower are expected Wednesday through Thursday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...NL MARINE...77