FXUS63 KMPX 271117 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 617 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain arrives late afternoon to evening hours and will last through early Wednesday morning. Most locations will see up to a half inch of accumulation, highest amounts in central/southern MN. - Breezy winds out of the south-southeast ahead of the incoming system, shifting west-northwest by Wednesday. - Seasonal temperatures the rest of the week behind the system. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Early morning satellite reveals an incoming storm system across the Dakotas with cloud cover very slowing approaching western Minnesota. The rest of the Upper MS valley is cloud free with temperatures in the 40s. The most notable change to the forecast over the past day is to continue to slow down the arrival of the precipitation. This is not a surprise as guidance can be over aggressive with onset timing. This is an important trend as it has led to more sunshine & warmer temperatures for today. Highs will push into the upper 50s and lower 60s with locations in S/E MN & W WI on tap for another pleasant late October day. Western MN will see rain begin by late afternoon with precipitation becoming more steady overnight. We've adjusted PoPs to match the trend and have maintained the QPF forecast of 0.50" with locally 0.75" to 1.00" amounts possible. Rain chances ramp up overnight into Tuesday with rain likely during the day Tuesday. There is still uncertainty on exactly the placement of the band of showers with a chance for some locations missing out. Those most likely to miss out are west-central WI based on a blend of deterministic & ensemble guidance. There is a greater spread in the hi-res models, not unusual given their precision tied to convection & near term, but the latest HRRR extension has the heaviest QPF along the MN/WI than elsewhere. "It's possible, but unlikely at this time." Temperatures cool on Tuesday with highs in the lower 50s and lows in the lower 40s and upper 30s Tuesday night. Our weather pattern will resort to a drier and more seasonable look after Tuesday. Our daily highs & lows will trend near normal, which is in the lower 50s/upper 40s for highs and mid to upper 30s for lows. This is a welcome change as we approach the final month of meteorological Fall: November. There isn't much signal for any precipitation for the next week or so. This isn't too surprising as we enter our "dry season" with normal precip values for the month of November is only between 1.25" and 1.5" for the entire month. Beyond this forecast period, the start of November doesn't look too different than the end of October. There is beginning to be some noise towards the end of the first week of November that we could possibly see some colder air break into the Upper Midwest. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 610 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 VFR to start for all terminals with cloud cover steadily increasing throughout the day into this evening from west to east. Rain still expected to develop over western MN and spread eastward later today through tonight but models continue to slow down the timing. Rain may start at AXN this afternoon, but that looks to be the only terminal possibly having rainfall prior to sunset. Otherwise, chances ramp up this evening for all sites, with rain likely overnight for all MN TAF sites and possibly into western WI. Have used PROB30s to indicate some wiggle room for an earlier start time before the prevailing rain. As the rain approaches, as will MVFR ceilings. Some patches of IFR- worthy ceilings are possible in western MN prior to daybreak. Rain is expected to be generally light, thus no visibilities lower than 6sm are expected at this time, along with no CB/TS. Breezy/gusty SE winds are expected later this morning which will then continue through the remainder of this TAF duration. KMSP...VFR with only passing high clouds through the daylight hours today, then clouds increase in coverage and lower in height this evening with rain likely prior to daybreak Tuesday morning. Could have some showers shortly after midnight, but the better chances are closer to 12z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind NE 10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...JPC