FXUS63 KMPX 270918

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

418 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Rain arrives late afternoon to evening hours and will last

  through early Wednesday morning. Most locations will see up to

  a half inch of accumulation, highest amounts in

  central/southern MN.



- Breezy winds out of the south-southeast ahead of the incoming

  system, shifting west-northwest by Wednesday.



- Seasonal temperatures the rest of the week behind the system.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Early morning satellite reveals an incoming storm system across the 

Dakotas with cloud cover very slowing approaching western Minnesota. 

The rest of the Upper MS valley is cloud free with temperatures in 

the 40s. The most notable change to the forecast over the past day 

is to continue to slow down the arrival of the precipitation. This 

is not a surprise as guidance can be over aggressive with onset 

timing. This is an important trend as it has led to more sunshine & 

warmer temperatures for today. Highs will push into the upper 50s 

and lower 60s with locations in S/E MN & W WI on tap for another 

pleasant late October day. Western MN will see rain begin by late 

afternoon with precipitation becoming more steady overnight. We've 

adjusted PoPs to match the trend and have maintained the QPF 

forecast of 0.50" with locally 0.75" to 1.00" amounts possible. Rain 

chances ramp up overnight into Tuesday with rain likely during the 

day Tuesday. There is still uncertainty on exactly the placement of 

the band of showers with a chance for some locations missing out. 

Those most likely to miss out are west-central WI based on a blend 

of deterministic & ensemble guidance. There is a greater spread in 

the hi-res models, not unusual given their precision tied to 

convection & near term, but the latest HRRR extension has the 

heaviest QPF along the MN/WI than elsewhere. "It's possible, but 

unlikely at this time." Temperatures cool on Tuesday with highs in 

the lower 50s and lows in the lower 40s and upper 30s Tuesday night. 



Our weather pattern will resort to a drier and more seasonable look 

after Tuesday. Our daily highs & lows will trend near normal, 

which is in the lower 50s/upper 40s for highs and mid to upper 

30s for lows. This is a welcome change as we approach the final 

month of meteorological Fall: November. There isn't much signal 

for any precipitation for the next week or so. This isn't too 

surprising as we enter our "dry season" with normal precip 

values for the month of November is only between 1.25" and 1.5" 

for the entire month. Beyond this forecast period, the start of 

November doesn't look too different than the end of October. 

There is beginning to be some noise towards the end of the first

week of November that we could possibly see some colder air 

break into the Upper Midwest. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



VFR conditions will continue through most of the TAF period. An

incoming system is trending slower. I have nudged the arrival 

of the rain showers back an hour or two for the MN sites 

AXN/RWF/MKT/STC. Eastward movement of the rain will be slow &

forecast soundings suggest dry air will limit surface rain.

MSP/RNH/EAU will have to wait until after 06Z Tuesday for rain

chances. Cloud cover will slowly build in between 8-10k feet 

increase during the afternoon hours. Our western sites should

see another round of breezy SE winds with gusts between 25-30

kts. Gust up to 25 kts are possible at MKT/STC/MSP, up to 20 

kts at RNH/EAU.



KMSP... Rain chances will increase after 06Z Tuesday. I have 

added a PROB30 with VFR -SHRA. 



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ 

TUE...MVFR/-RA likely. Wind SE 10-15 kts becoming NE. 

WED...VFR.Wind NE 10 kts. 

THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BPH

AVIATION...BPH