FXUS63 KMPX 221108 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 608 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon temperatures today will be 30 to 35 degrees colder than the record highs seen Saturday. - No major weather systems expected over the next 7 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 The cold front this morning is making progress south across Iowa and it has taken with it the airmass that brought us a record high yesterday at MSP. We've had radar returns with a band of mid-level fgen behind the front through the night, though last night's 00z sounding here showed we ended up with a hot and dry airmass with our heat yesterday, which has meant these radar returns have largely been virga, which we expect to be the case the rest of the night. Besides cold air, stratus is overspreading the area as well. Current forecast has this cloud cover breaking up in the afternoon, but if it doesn't, then we would have afternoon temperatures more in the upper 30s to low 40s as opposed to the low to mid 40s currently forecast. This is a good 30 to 35 degrees colder than Saturday's highs, though temperatures this afternoon will actually be near normal. For next week, the weather looks quiet, though we will be seeing frontal passages every couple of days, which will help keep our temperatures from varying too wildly, with highs generally in the 40s and 50s expected. The two main surface troughs/fronts coming through will be Monday night and Wednesday night into Thursday. Precip with the Monday night front will be up in the Lake Superior region. For the mid-week front, the surface low driving it will be farther south, which will open us open to possibly seeing some light precipitation. It looks to be mostly rain, though if we end up with mostly nocturnal/early morning precip Wednesday night into Thursday morning, we could mix in some snow. Behind the second front, it will turn colder to end the week, with highs Friday likely to struggle to reach 40. Looking to next weekend and beyond, the ensembles still show a broad pattern shift occurring to end March and begin April, with a western trough/eastern ridge developing. This will lead to the potential for more active weather as we head into April. Also, we will have to see how any systems in early April shake out before we can say we have vanquished winter for the 2025-2026 cool season. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 607 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Not much change since the previous TAF. Still anticipating low MVFR stratus to stick around for at least the first half of the period. Cigs should begin to scatter out to VFR from NW to SE early this afternoon. Any reflectivity appearing on radar this morning is mainly coming down in the form of isolated sprinkles at best thanks to dry a midlevel. Breezy 18-24 kt northerly winds gradually decrease throughout this morning becoming light and variable this evening. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts. WED...VFR. S Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind S 5-15 kts. THU...VFR. S Chc -RA/MVFR early. Wind NW 10-20 kts && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...Dunleavy