FXUS63 KMPX 220711

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

211 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Afternoon temperatures today will be 30 to 35 degrees colder

  than the record highs seen Saturday.



- No major weather systems expected over the next 7 days.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



The cold front this morning is making progress south across Iowa and 

it has taken with it the airmass that brought us a record high 

yesterday at MSP. We've had radar returns with a band of mid-level 

fgen behind the front through the night, though last night's 00z 

sounding here showed we ended up with a hot and dry airmass with our 

heat yesterday, which has meant these radar returns have largely 

been virga, which we expect to be the case the rest of the night. 

Besides cold air, stratus is overspreading the area as well. Current 

forecast has this cloud cover breaking up in the afternoon, but if 

it doesn't, then we would have afternoon temperatures more in the 

upper 30s to low 40s as opposed to the low to mid 40s currently 

forecast. This is a good 30 to 35 degrees colder than Saturday's 

highs, though temperatures this afternoon will actually be near 

normal.



For next week, the weather looks quiet, though we will be seeing 

frontal passages every couple of days, which will help keep our 

temperatures from varying too wildly, with highs generally in the 

40s and 50s expected. The two main surface troughs/fronts coming 

through will be Monday night and Wednesday night into Thursday. 

Precip with the Monday night front will be up in the Lake Superior 

region. For the mid-week front, the surface low driving it will be 

farther south, which will open us open to possibly seeing some light 

precipitation. It looks to be mostly rain, though if we end up with 

mostly nocturnal/early morning precip Wednesday night into Thursday 

morning, we could mix in some snow. Behind the second front, it will 

turn colder to end the week, with highs Friday likely to struggle to 

reach 40. 



Looking to next weekend and beyond, the ensembles still show a broad 

pattern shift occurring to end March and begin April, with a western 

trough/eastern ridge developing. This will lead to the potential for 

more active weather as we head into April. Also, we will have to see 

how any systems in early April shake out before we can say we have 

vanquished winter for the 2025-2026 cool season.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



MVFR cigs will linger through at least the first half of 

the period. Cigs should begin to return to VFR and scatter out after 

18/19z timeframe. Reflectivity this morning showing plenty of echoes 

however given last night's upper air sounding, the mid-levels appear 

too warm and dry. Therefore have opted to remove any prob30 mentions 

for -SHRA. Breezy northerly winds will gust between 18-24kts this 

morning before deceasing between 10-15kts this afternoon. 



KMSP...No additional concerns. 



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. 

TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts.

WED...VFR. S Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind S 5-15 kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...MPG

AVIATION...Dunleavy