FXUS63 KMPX 202011 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 311 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry conditions on Monday, scattered showers possible across southern MN. - Drier conditions return this week with highs in the mid to upper 60s. - Next chance for rain arrives Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 .REMAINDER OF TODAY AND MONDAY... Broken to overcast skies will continue through the majority of your Sunday. High temperatures this afternoon will trend a few degrees warmer than Saturday, topping out in the low to middle 60s. On Monday, surface high pressure over Canada will promote drying trend with moisture values decreasing steadily. DP temps will fall back into the 40s across most of the forecast area. 50 degree DP temps remain in place across southern MN where isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible. .TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND... Crisp and cool nights can be expected starting Monday night/Tuesday morning and Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with forecast low temperatures dropping into the 40s areawide, with few areas dropping into the upper 30s. Otherwise, quiet and fair weather will persist through Wednesday with afternoon high temperatures in the middle to upper 60s. Wednesday night into Thursday, a weak cold front will move east across the Dakotas, resulting in low-end chances of rain across western MN. The next slug of moisture and associated upper level piece of energy will move north out of the southern and central High Plains and towards the Dakotas on Thursday. This feature will not offer too much in terms of impactful weather. However, it will allow DP temps to increase, especially across western MN where rain chances increase on Friday. Thereafter, the upper flow regime becomes more messy with discrepancies and differences between between run to run deterministic model guidance. That said, ensemble guidance has been fairly consistent, still hinting at drier conditions next weekend with near average to slightly above average temperatures for the end of September. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1151 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 A stratocumulus deck near 2000 feet currently stretches from western MN into central WI. This feature will slowly move southeast eventually causing MVFR at RWF and MKT by early this afternoon. But, daytime heating will also lift and break apart these clouds as we go through this afternoon, allowing for VFR conditions by this evening. Mid to high clouds are expected overnight with another round stratus near 5000 feet developing during Monday morning. A messy trough will move into IA during Monday, bringing an influx of moisture into southern MN. Have included a PROB30 at MKT for -SHRA and MVFR conditions mid to late Monday morning. East-northeasterly winds will gust to near 20 knots this afternoon then slow to 5-10 knots for the remainder of the period. KMSP...MVFR should last until 22z when stratocumulus deck breaks apart enough and lifts to VFR. East-northeast winds will gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. Another MVFR stratus deck is expected mid-morning to late afternoon Monday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. THU...VFR, chc AM -SHRA. Wind SE 10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LPR AVIATION...CTG