FXUS63 KMPX 092326

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

626 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Isolated showers and storms along a frontal passage this 

  afternoon/evening.



- Continued sunny and warm conditions ahead, with fire weather 

  concerns increasing later into the weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Agitated cumulus is evident in southwestern Minnesota ahead of the 

broad frontal boundary sliding southeast across the region this 

afternoon, with MPX radar showing some showers embedded within the 

front as of 230pm. Further echoes are expected as the front moves 

through over the next 4-5 hours with intermittent showers and even 

weak thunderstorms possible as potential to reach the ground is 

maximized along the western side of the front closer to the weak 

surface low. Most of the activity will likely be virga with some 

brief showers possible mainly in the event of thunderstorm 

development with enough precipitation intensity to overcome low 

level dry air. If we had more moisture to work with, we could have 

had a more significant weather day given the hot surface 

temperatures and access to instability, however the lack of moisture 

plus weak shear keeps the threat rather low.



Winds will shift post fropa out of the northwest and eventually 

northeast by early tomorrow before shifting further towards the 

southeast as we continue our trend of upper level ridging and 

general subsidence. Sunshine continues over the next 4-5 days with 

little access to cloud cover as conditions continue to dry out, 

resulting in the main concern moving forward being increasing fire 

weather concerns, especially by Sunday through Tuesday as surface 

winds increase. As for high temperatures, a large nose of warm air 

in the low to mid levels should be able to efficiently mix down to 

the surface given the prevalent sunshine, with our first chance at 

90s in the Twin Cities on Sunday and continuing for a few days 

afterwards. The efficient mixing will also enhance the winds to 

increase fire weather concerns, with surface winds sustained at 10-

15mph and gusts to at least 30mph early next week. There will be 

areas within the MPX CWA where Red Flag conditions are likely, 

especially western Minnesota where warmer temperatures will lead to 

the lowest RH combined with the strongest winds. With sunshine and 

dry conditions until then, fuels will be primed and susceptible to 

rapid fire growth, thus it will be important early next week to 

follow burning restrictions set by local and state officials.



The warm nose aloft will maintain its position until at least the 

middle of next week before guidance shows the ridge pushing 

eastwards and a trough developing over the Rocky Mountains. 

Depending on how this trough progresses eastwards, we could be 

looking at our next chance for significant showers and thunderstorms 

with ensemble guidance still showing several different outcomes. 

Given the low confidence forecast as the trough arrives, expect 

further forecast changes for mid to late next week until guidance 

comes into better alignment.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Cold front and a narrow band of light showers continues to push

southeast across southern MN and western WI. Northwest winds

behind the front could gust to 20 kts early this evening across

western MN. Winds will veer more easterly for Saturday.



KMSP...Light and variable winds due to various outflow 

boundaries will become steady northwest by 01Z. Gradual veering

late tonight to east northeast expected Saturday. 



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...VFR. Wind S10-15G25kts.

MON...VFR. Wind S10-15G25-30kts. 

TUE...VFR. Wind S10-15kts.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Record high temperatures are possible on Sunday, May 11.



Site| Forecast | Record

------------------------ 



MSP |  89  |  88 (1900) 

STC |  90  |  90 (1911)

EAU |  80  |  89 (1922)



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening 

     for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-

     Douglas-Faribault-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac 

     Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-

     Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Scott-

     Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Watonwan-

     Wright-Yellow Medicine.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...TDH

AVIATION...Borghoff

CLIMATE...NDC