FXUS63 KMPX 061849

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

149 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Frost/freeze concerns continue tonight



- Gradual warm up over the next few days. Cold front to bring

  isolated showers on Saturday.



- Increasing confidence for normal to above normal temperatures

  next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



A rather quiet stretch of weather is on tap over next 7 days 

across the Upper Midwest. Overcast skies linger across much of 

the region this afternoon. A few peaks of sunshine may make it 

through time to time but that's it. I have lowered today's 

temperatures in response to the increase in cloud cover. Highs 

top out in the mid 40s to 50 vs the lower 50s the previous 

update had. Otherwise, not much has changed. Attention turns to 

the frost/freeze headlines for tonight/Thursday morning. There 

are two main concerns that should limit widespread frost and 

freezing temperatures overnight. Cloud cover will prevent 

temperatures from bottoming out despite the light and variable 

wind profile. Additionally, frost formation has struggled the 

past several nights - this is due to the dry air mass that's 

been stuck over the region for the last week or so. Dew point 

temperatures tonight are forecast in the low to mid 20s while 

air temperatures are in the low to mid 30s. That's a pretty 

significant dew point depression when you consider colder 

temperatures will be limited tonight by overcast skies. We did 

issue a small Frost Advisory over west- central Wisconsin to 

match up with our neighbors - they will have slightly colder 

temperatures that could see slightly better frost formation 

conditions or temperatures briefly dipping below 32f. So what 

does that mean for everyone else? If you brought in plants or 

covered them yesterday, I would do it again for the peace of 

mind. It's still quite cold for early May and the trade off is a

few minutes to cover them up. Worth it for a plant you don't 

want to lose!



The remainder of the forecast period will gradually warm with no 

meaningful signal of widespread precipitation. The lack of rain will 

likely begin to show up on future drought monitors, but we're "okay" 

for now. We could see some patchy showers Saturday, primarily across 

western Wisconsin, but they're not going to cause anyone to cancel 

their outdoor plans. Another chance of rain arrives next Tuesday and 

is the best chance for measurable precipitation event. Friday looks 

particularly nice with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s with 

mostly sunny skies. The weekend will be passable with mostly cloud 

conditions on Saturday and highs in the mid/upper 60s. Sunday will 

be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Next week 

will feel more like Spring with temperatures near to slightly above 

normal. Looking ahead toward Mid-May and the second half of the 

month - there is a signal that the high latitude blocking pattern 

may begin to break down towards mid month. This should allow for the 

persistent eastern CONUS trough to also break down and could allow 

for the return of warmer, more active weather in the second half of 

May. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Our midday cloud deck continues to overspread the region with 

cigs generally around 4-6kft. They will continue to trend more

BKN than OVC throughout the day, especially after sunset. The 

majority of clearing may not occur until around sunrise tomorrow

morning, at which point more additional diurnal cumulus is

expected to develop. Sites in western WI and eastern MN will be

in the area where this cu field develops, while western MN will

have a better chance for clearer skies. 



Northwest winds will occasional gusts to 20kts continue this 

afternoon, before becoming light and variable overnight. As 

winds increase tomorrow morning, there may be a couple hours of 

southwesterly winds, then westerly winds prevail around 5 to

10 kts.



KMSP...No additional concerns.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ 

FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

SAT...VFR. Wind W to NW 10-15kts.

SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for Chippewa-

     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Rusk.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BPH

AVIATION...BED