FXUS63 KMPX 051814 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 114 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather today and tomorrow, with rain chances returning on Friday. - Isolated storm chances linger through the rest of the period, with the best chance Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 The fair weather cumulus has largely been confined to western WI and southeastern MN so far this afternoon with some wispy high clouds also moving through on what is otherwise a gorgeous day across the region. Temperatures are comfortable in the low to mid 70s expected to reach the mid to upper 70s this afternoon before dropping back into the 50s tonight. Tomorrow should be a bit warmer than today, back to the low to mid 80s as breezy southerly winds are expected ahead of what will be our next chance for precipitation arriving on Friday via a weak cold front. The timing of the front has trended earlier within the last 24 hours of model runs, generally arriving around 12 hours earlier than previously forecast by most of the guidance as we have just reached the range where some of the CAMs are starting to pick up on it. The earlier timing will allow the strongest showers to arrive from the northwest with a bit of nocturnal low level jet enhancement, however by the time it reaches the MPX CWA it will be after sunrise such that they should remain fairly weak. Due to how weak the surface low and frontal boundary are, we are not expecting any sort of significant widespread rains or even storms from this round, with most of the area being fairly dry or less than a few hundredths of an inch. Those who manage to see a slightly stronger shower or even a weak thunderstorm could see a tenth of an inch or two at the most through the end of Friday. There is still a notable warm bias within the GEFS/FV3 suite of guidance as we head through the weekend and into early next week, as they are producing a much stronger ridge to the southwest which is allowing for a much greater degree of lower level warming compared to the much cooler EPS/ECMWF. The NBM has generally favored the EPS solution with highs in the low to mid 80s through the weekend and into early next week, which seems most realistic as the FV3 core likely is keeping a lingering warm bias due to the hot weather we observed throughout July. On top of the warm bias, there are concerns due to the upstream flow being sourced from a region with active wildfires resulting in upper level smoke which would help knock down temperatures by a degree or two. Weaker lower level warming would also give us better chances for fair weather cumulus or even some isolated storm activity by reducing any sort of lower level cap and allowing us to tap into some instability. Given the upper level flow favoring west-northwest to northwesterly, some ridge-rider style shortwave impulses are also possible, further adding to the daily cloud cover/isolated storm chances. All these things combined, we generally favor the cooler solution compared to the red hot GEFS/FV3. As we get a bit closer and into the shorter- CAM ranges, we should have a better idea on diurnal thunderstorm chances. For now, the best chances remain Friday and Saturday night, with low confidence afterwards. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1141 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 VFR expected the entire period with scattered high clouds this evening into tonight. Winds over eastern MN and western WI are still northwesterly following the cold front but will eventually join the western terminals in a south-southwesterly direction by this evening. Strongest winds this afternoon will be in west- central MN (AXN) where gusts could reach 20 knots. Winds slow to nearor under 5 knots this evening before increasing during Thursday morning out of the south-southwest. Gusts will exceed 20 knots in west-central MN by late Thursday morning. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind SW 5-10G20kts. SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NNE 5kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...CTG