FXUS63 KMPX 032108

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

308 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A slight chance of light snow early Wednesday morning. 

Accumulations of a less than an inch expected.



- Gradual warm up this week with the warmest day on Thursday. A 

slight cool down through the weekend before continued above normal 

temperatures next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 307 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Mostly sunny skies will continue for most of us for the remainder of 

this afternoon. Temperatures currently ranging in the teens and 

perhaps for few 20s across western Wisconsin and southern Minnesota. 

Across the western CONUS, upper-level ridging remains the dominant 

feature. The eastern periphery of this ridge is expected to move in 

across the upper plains tonight. Embedded within this ridge, is a 

weak mid-level wave that has already began producing cloud cover 

across the Dakotas and now Minnesota this afternoon. Forecast 

soundings do hint that there is some potential for some flurries to 

develop. First, across western MN tonight, then reaching the I-35 

corridor around sunrise tomorrow, then wrapping up across 

western WI by noon. Snow accumulations as of now continue to 

look best across portions of western MN between a trace to a few

tenths of an inch. Temperatures tomorrow will be slightly 

warmer than today and range in the 20s. 



Ridging to our west continues eastward Thursday. The jetstream

above the northern plains only strengthens and brings another 

embedded wave during the pre-dawn hours Thursday morning. This 

time, the track of this wave looks to cross over Lake Superior 

and Wisconsin. Therefore, have increased PoPs to "chance" 

categories across western Wisconsin for that timeframe for a 

chance of snow showers and perhaps another shot at a trace to a 

tenth of an inch of snow. As for temps, the blow torch is set to

high in this case. Most sites will range in the mid to upper 

30s and even perhaps mid-40s across southwestern Minnesota. 



By early this weekend, upper-level troughing develops over the 

Hudson Bay area and will send a cold front briefly over the northern 

plains. With the increase of CAA from the north, did nudge up wind 

gusts Friday night slightly between 20 to 30 mph. The most potent 

cold air looks to impact more so the eastern CONUS but we still can 

expect with highs slightly cooler in the 20s on Saturday. 

Southwestern MN appears to be displaced enough to where their highs 

should remain in the mid-30s or warmer. The forecast for Sunday into 

early next week continues to look overall warm and quiet with 

forecast highs on running well above-normal for this time of

year. &&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1122 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Mid/low clouds have stayed confined to South Dakota this

morning. High pressure centered over northern Minnesota is

keeping winds at 5kts or less. This high will slide southward

overnight, allowing winds to go calm for many locales. A weak

shortwave will follow by early Wednesday morning, with clouds

increasing and sending the majority of our Minnesota terminals

into MVFR territory through the rest of the morning. Snow 

chances still look minimal with this feature, but have 

maintained the PROB30 at KAXN and KRWF. By the end of the 

period, winds become northwesterly around 6kts. 



KMSP...No additional concerns.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.

FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.

SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Dunleavy

AVIATION...Dye