FXUS63 KMPX 030831

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

231 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A 15-30% chance of light snow in western MN during early 

  Wednesday morning. Accumulations of less than an inch are 

  expected.



- Gradual warm up this week with the warmest day on Thursday. A

  slight cool down through the weekend before continued above

  normal temperatures next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 229 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Morning lows have dropped into the negative single digits over our 

northern CWA as clear skies have allowed for strong radiational 

cooling. Surface high pressure over south-central Canada will slowly 

slide southeast into WI today, allowing for mostly sunny skies into 

this afternoon. However, even with the sun, continued northerly flow 

will mean highs only warm into the teens. Clouds will increase again 

this evening into tonight as a subtle mid-level wave passes through. 

These clouds will keep lows from dropping too much, especially 

across southwestern MN where low teens are expected. A band of 

flurries may also move through the area early Wednesday morning with 

the wave, so have added 15-30% PoPs across MN. Once the wave passes, 

a very small portion of the strong thermal ridge over the western 

CONUS will try to work into the Northern Plains on Wednesday. Thus, 

highs are forecast to be slightly warmer in the lower to mid 20s. 

Thursday looks to be much warmer as forecast models show a bigger 

lobe of the thermal ridge extending into the Northern Plains. 850 

hPa temperatures of 6-8 C should be over western MN by Thursday 

afternoon, resulting in abnormal warmth for early February. 

Currently, have highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s for most of the 

area. But, extreme western MN has the greatest boom potential for 

warmth with mid to perhaps even upper 40s possible.



A shortwave and attendant cold front will sweep through the Upper 

Midwest Thursday night, which cools us slightly for the end of the 

week. However, temperatures look to still be above normal with highs 

in the mid 20s to mid 30s through Sunday. Some light snow and/or 

freezing drizzle may occur Thursday night over western WI with the 

aforementioned shortwave. NAM and GFS forecast soundings in 

this region show a subfreezing thermal profile with saturation 

that extends from the surface into the lower zone of the DGZ. 

While accumulations will be light, freezing drizzle could cause 

slick conditions with the Friday morning commute. Heading into 

next week, the forecast looks relatively uneventful 

precipitation-wise as no strong, organized waves look to be on 

the horizon in the long-range models. The bigger question is, 

"How warm will we get next week?" Long-range ensembles show the 

thermal ridge that had been over the western CONUS migrating 

into the central CONUS by early next week. This will bring a 

much warmer air mass into the central CONUS, close to MN/WI, 

such that there will be opportunities for very abnormal warmth 

for early February. Long-range ensembles generally favor 

multiple days for highs of at least mid 30s at MSP throughout 

next week. The EPS and the 00Z ECMWF are the most aggressive 

with the warmth with multiple days of at least 40. We'll have to

see if these temperatures come to fruition, but the upper-level

pattern during next week looks unsettlingly "summer-like" for 

early February.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1050 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



VFR stratus and any lingering flurries across southern MN will 

gradually depart to the south overnight. For now, RWF & MKT 

will open the 6z period with a VFR cig, but should eventually 

observe some clearing as dry air flows in from the north. Have 

taken all TAFs in a more optimistic direction tonight following 

trends in the LAMP guidance and the HRRR. Forecast soundings do

depict a a shallow ground fog signal that is most pronounced at

AXN, so included a 6SM BR mention after 10z, though confidence 

is low in any visibility reductions materializing. Approach of 

the sfc high and subsidence will make for a rather quiet TAF 

period, with light winds and perhaps some passing high clouds 

Tuesday afternoon.



KMSP...No additional concerns.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.

FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.

SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...CTG

AVIATION...Strus