FXUS63 KMPX 022007 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 307 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity build as we head into the holiday weekend. - Showers and thunderstorms are expected late Friday into Saturday. - Cooler and drier conditions arrive for the second half of the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Visible satellite imagery shows diurnal Cu across far southeastern Minnesota and much of western Wisconsin this afternoon. There are far fewer clouds to the west, allowing temperatures to make a run at 90. It's also quite a bit more humid across western Minnesota with Tds in the mid to upper 60s thanks to southerly flow on the eastern edge of a building ridge across the central CONUS. The thunderstorm chances for this afternoon have been significantly reduced as the better forcing lies to the east. Still, a rouge shower or two may pop before the sun sets. Tomorrow, with the ridge axis over the eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota, temperatures and humidity will be on the rise. Southerly flow will send Tds into the 70s with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s. With the better moisture and a weak 700mb shortwave, we may have a better shot at some afternoon showers and thunderstorms for southern Minnesota/western Wisconsin. Heading into the Independence Day holiday weekend, the heat and humidity look to stick around showers and thunderstorms likely sometime late Friday through Saturday. Friday should be mostly dry during the day, but heat indices will approach the mid to upper 90s. While there is currently no heat related headline, one may be considered in future forecasts. As we get into the evening/overnight hours, chances for storms increase ahead of an approaching cold front. There is still a fair amount of timing uncertainty, but overall, it does appear thunderstorms will hold off until late in the evening/overnight hours. Thanks to the instability that will build through the afternoon, some of these storms may be strong to severe. Lapse rates are less than impressive, but some hail and damaging winds are possible. Those with outdoor plans are encouraged to monitor the forecast. The first half of the weekend looks to be a continuation of Friday night with an additional mid level shortwave pushing across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Increasing 850mb winds will shift the threat for the heavier showers and storms into far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. QPF totals for the two days are around a half inch to an inch, but given the impressive pwats, some higher amounts are certainly possible. Sunday will be much cooler and drier in the wake of this system. Slightly below normal temperatures will last through the early part of next week with no strong signal for widespread rainfall. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 For RNH and EAU, considered including a PROB30 for -TSRA this evening but CAM uncertainty is too high while coverage of precip looks too sparse. A stray shower may pass near EAU later near 01Z. Also, included visibilities dropping to IFR at EAU just before sunrise Thursday as fog seems most likely here. Elsewhere, VFR expected the entire period. Southwesterly winds slow to under 5 knots tonight and slowly become southeasterly. Winds then increase to 5-10 knots during Thursday morning. KMSP...Any -SHRA or -TSRA this afternoon/evening looks to be well east of MSP. VFR expected the entire period. A PROB30 may be needed for -TSRA Thursday afternoon in future forecasts. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR, chc TSRA/IFR pm. Wind S 10-15G25-30kts. SAT...-SHRA/MVFR, chc IFR. Wind SW 5-10kts. SUN...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR PM. Wind NW 10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...CTG