FXUS63 KMPX 020858

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

258 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A mostly quiet week ahead with varying temperatures and a few

  low chances for snow. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 258 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



Extensive mid level stratus is beginning to break up this 

morning across western and central MN. This trend should 

continue for the next several hours, but higher clouds will

begin increasing later this morning as the next wave approaches

for this afternoon and evening. Scattered flurries will be 

possible as long as the lower stratus is in place for the next 

few hours. The next wave will track from MT to eastern SD by 

this evening and then to southern IA early Tuesday morning. Some

light snow is possible across southwestern MN late this 

afternoon and evening, but amounts will be negligible. A few 

flurries are possible farther northeast, but dry air under the 

mid level cloud deck will keep chances low. Another weak system

will dive south across MN Tuesday night and early Wednesday,

bringing another low chance for light snow or flurries west of

I-35.



Moderating temperatures Wednesday and especially Thursday will

occur thanks to a clipper tracking across central or southern

Canada. Latest guidance is quite a bit farther north than in

previous days, so PoPs continue to decline. This shift also 

increases the chance of breaking 40 for highs Thursday to about

60 percent across southwestern MN. The system will send a cold 

front south late Thursday night or Friday which will knock 

temperatures back through Saturday. The ridge will build back 

early next week and temperatures should rebound back into the 

30s or 40s.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026



Weak cold advection and widespread MVFR ceilings persist across

the entire area in the wake of the Sunday snowfall. Low pressure

in northern Ontario is maintaining weak cyclonic curvature and 

some lift over MN/WI and this is helping keep the MVFR along 

with some flurries. Short term models suggest this will continue

into mid morning Monday, so have kept the MVFR ceilings for the

rest of the night and through much of Monday morning. Gusty 

winds in some areas will decrease as high pressure moves in.



KMSP...Few additional concerns. Ceilings should remain MVFR

into mid morning before increasing to VFR. There is some chance

ceilings may improve to VFR prior to then, but confidence of

that happening is less than average, hence keeping it MVFR for 

now. Any flurries are unlikely to reduce visibility to MVFR.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5kts. 

WED...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.

THU...VFR, chc MVFR. Wind S 5-10 kts bcmg SW 10-15G20kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...None.

WI...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Borghoff

AVIATION...TDK