FXUS63 KMKX 270252 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 952 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small Craft Advisory for nearshore waters tonight through at least Tuesday, due to gusty onshore winds and building waves. May need to be extended into Thursday, as gusty onshore winds and building waves linger. - Rain chances for Tuesday into Wednesday continue, though there is uncertainty on where the rain may occur. There is more uncertainty with precipitation chances later in the week. && .UPDATE... Issued 955 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 No major changes to the going forecast at this time. Sheppard && .SHORT TERM... Issued 135 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Tonight through Monday night: High pressure will hold fast tonight through tomorrow continuing to promote quiet conditions. Overnight, light winds and subsidence will support overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s inland from Lake Michigan. Clear skies will then continue through tomorrow with some diurnal cu expected during the afternoon and moderately breezy southeast winds to around 20 mph. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 204 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Monday night through Sunday: Monday night into Tuesday morning, a large frontal boundary is expected to approach from the west and run into high pressure centered over eastern Canada. Areas of rain along the frontal boundary will run into remnant dry air from the high and largely stall along the Mississippi River Valley. Rain would largely stay over the southwestern CWA in this scenario with rain less likely along the Lake Michigan shoreline, during the day on Tuesday Models then depict this trough phasing with developing low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley, pulling the rain south away from Wisconsin Tuesday night into Wednesday. Beyond, the extended pattern becomes unclear owing to two interacting troughs over the eastern United States. The aforementioned low is expected follow a digging trough through the southeastern US and join with a coastal sfc trough over the eastern seaboard, while a weak trough dives southeast in the upper Mississippi Valley Thursday into Friday. These two troughs are expected to rotate around each other, lending some uncertainty as to where precipitation chances will set up next weekend. For now, the NBM focuses 30% pops on precipitation from the eastern coastal trough, mainly dragging those through Michigan during the weekend and clipping the Lake Michigan shoreline in Wisconsin with chances pops. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 955 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Clear skies and VFR through the overnight period, with light east winds. Some FEW/SCT high altitude clouds (over 25,000 ft) and FEW 3,000-4,000 ft cumulus clouds may develop on Monday, still VFR. The east breeze continues. High and mid altitude (VFR) clouds expected to increase in coverage Monday night with continued dry weather. The east to southeast winds over Lake Michigan are expected to become gusty Monday night, and may bleed into shoreline terminals. Further inland, the east breeze remains slower / steadier, but picks up into the daytime hours of Tuesday. Sheppard && .MARINE... Issued 204 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Strong high pressure over southeast Ontario today will shift into Quebec tonight into Monday night. Increasing southeast to east winds are expected during this period. Weak low pressure should develop over Missouri on Tuesday and shift into the Ohio River Valley Wednesday. This low should strengthen and eventually shift into the Northeast by the end of the week. East to southeast winds will continue to be gusty through Wednesday, with the high positioned to the northeast.Winds should then shift northeast to north Wednesday night into Thursday, as the low pressure system passes well southeast of the region. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee