FXUS63 KMKX 091519 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1019 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry and warm through the weekend. - Small chances (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued 1018 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 No change to the forecast for today. Clear skies with light winds today, except for a lake breeze this afternoon. High temps ranging from upper 50s lakeshore to lower 70s inland. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to around 50, so no frost concerns. A weak cold front may bring a couple light showers overnight. Cronce && .SHORT TERM... Issued 359 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Today through Sunday: Light winds and plenty of sunshine will prevail today under high pressure. Temperatures will approach 70 degrees most places away from Lake Michigan, with cooler temps near the lake as a lake breeze develops by early afternoon. A weak cold front will then approach tonight, dropping south through southern Wisconsin Saturday morning. A shower or two will be possible tonight ahead of the front, but most places are likely to remain dry. High pressure will return for the weekend, with plenty of sunshine and gradually warming temperatures expected. Above normal high temps are expected away from Lake Michigan, with highs near or even a bit below normal near the lake under onshore winds. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 359 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Monday through Thursday: The upper low that will be situated over the Lower MS River Valley this weekend will open up into a broad low on Mon, and slowly lift newd into the Ohio River Valley for Tue afternoon. The extended models differ a bit with the placement and timing, but overall the low will funnel low to mid level moisture into srn WI beginning Mon nt. Thus a warm and low humidity day still looks good on Mon before the moisture arrives. A relatively mild and humid airmass will then be in place for Tue-Wed with marginal CAPE present. PVA on the nw periphery of the upper low and moist, weakly capped conditions will likely result in scattered showers and isold storms, greatest on Tuesday. The increase in humidity and clouds could keep the temps down a bit on Tue, but then increasingly warm through Thu and still humid. The upper low will be shifting farther ewd on Wed so possibly just isolated coverage will occur. For Thu, the wrn USA upper trough will be lifting newd through the nrn and central Great Plains with the sfc low likely to be located over the nrn Great Plains to MN with a trailing cold front to the south. It does appear much of the shower and storm potential will hold off until Thu nt. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 1018 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions are expected to persist through Saturday. Mostly clear skies and generally light winds will continue through the day today under high pressure. Variable wind direction this morning will become west to northwest this afternoon, except for east to southeast winds near the lake as a lake breeze moves inland. An isolated shower or two will be possible tonight ahead of a weak cold front, with winds then shifting to the north to northeast Saturday morning as the front drops through southern Wisconsin. Winds may be have gusts up to 25 kt along the front and then into the mid afternoon along the lakeshore. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 359 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 High pressure will shift south across Lake Michigan and Wisconsin today. A weak cold front will then follow the high across Lake Michigan late tonight into Saturday morning. Light and variable winds early today will become south to southwest ahead of the approaching cold front this afternoon into tonight. Gusty northerly winds behind the weak cold front can be expected on Saturday, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible across the nearshore waters. The winds will return to southerly for Sunday. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee