FXUS63 KMKX 050641 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1241 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for scattered drizzle/rain today with little rainfall accumulations. - Drier and cooler conditions Friday into Saturday. - Period of gale force gusts expected Thursday afternoon into Friday evening across Lake Michigan. Gales are initially expected to develop across the northern third of the lake and expand southward with time. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 1231 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 Current Overnight through Friday Night: Low pressure located over the UP and Lake Superior will pull ENE through the overnight hours. Low level moisture and weak omega will allow for scattered drizzle/light rain to continue in the meantime. During the mid to late morning hours today, the departing low will drag a cold front over southern WI. Breezy southerlies will persist until the front arrives, with a brief westerly shift and lull in winds speeds, and then a shift to breezy northerly winds behind the front, and a CAA regime Thursday afternoon. Widely scattered showers will be possible along the front, but lower dewpoints will quickly move in behind the cold front, ending rain chances by Thursday evening over all of southern WI. Thursday night, the CAA will usher in a colder air mass, and overnight lows will dip into the mid 30s. Friday looks to be dry with a mix of sun and clouds as high pressure moves into the region, but the colder air mass will only support highs in the upper 40s. Lows Friday night will be in the mid to upper 20s. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 1238 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 Saturday through Wednesday: A prolonged period of high pressure is expected to set up for the extended forecast, leading to dry, quiet weather. A building ridge over the plains will allow for a gradual warming trend through the weekend, with highs near 50 on Saturday, reaching the low 60s by Monday and Tuesday. A dry cold front then looks possible mid next week, bumping temps back down into the 50s. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 1215 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 Scattered drizzle and light rain showers will persist overnight amid predominantly MVFR ceilings. Breezy southwest winds will persist overnight. Thursday morning after dawn, IFR will spread over southern WI as a lull in the winds moves through along a cold front. After 18z, north winds will come crashing in behind the cold front and gusts from 20 to 25 knots will become common again. MVFR cigs will return behin the front Thursday afternoon, with VFR developing Thursday night into Friday. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 1207 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 Low pressure in northern Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan will slowly lift north across Lake Superior through tonight and move just south of James Bay by dawn on Thursday. Breezy southwest winds with gusts up to 30 knots will persist through tonight. As the low pressure continues northeast through Ontario/Quebec Thursday, it will drag a cold front across Lake Michigan Thursday afternoon/evening. Southwest winds will briefly turn westerly as the cold front passes over the lake late Thursday morning, before increasing and shifting northerly through the afternoon and evening following the passage of the cold front. A Gale Warning is in effect for all of Lake Michigan Thursday afternoon into Friday evening. Northwest to north gales are expected to develop across the northern third of the lake and spread south down the lake with time during the Gale Warning period. It is possible that the far southern open water zones do not see gales until Friday afternoon. High pressure is then expected to build across the Upper Great Lake Region through the weekend bringinglighter northwesterly winds. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...noon Thursday to 6 PM Friday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM Friday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee