FXUS63 KLSX 090008

AFDLSX



Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation

National Weather Service Saint Louis MO

708 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



-The weekend will be dry with warming temperatures.



-A warm and active pattern resumes for next week.





&&



.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)

Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to linger across southeast 

Missouri and southern Illinois this afternoon under the influence of 

a slowly moving mid to upper level low. This feature will finally 

kick to the south of our forecast area late this afternoon, and 

shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to wane as a result. 

Cloud cover will continue to diminish, though portions of southeast 

Missouri and southern Illinois that clear last may see clouds linger 

overnight.



A surface high will push into the area in the wake of this rain, and 

help to keep conditions dry for Friday. Under northeasterly flow 

temperatures will remain cool, with highs on Friday near 70.



Delia



&&



.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)

Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



The surface high will persist across the region as the mid to upper 

level low from today stalls across the lower Mississippi Valley for 

the weekend, both of which will help keep the region dry through the 

weekend. Temperatures will begin to warm a little each day despite 

the chilly starts with morning lows in the 40s. High temperatures 

will peak in the low to mid 70s Saturday, and upper 70s to low 80s 

Sunday.



The stalled mid level low will slide northward Monday, bringing 

lobes of vorticity back into the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi 

Valley through Tuesday. A surface low will move northward in step 

with the mid-level low, increasing precipitation chances Monday and 

Tuesday afternoon. Ensemble guidance diverges in how quickly the mid 

and surface lows push northward into the forecast area, causing 

differences in coverage of precipitation. The mid-level low will 

eject eastward out of the forecast area by Wednesday, allowing a mid-

level ridge to build into the area in it's wake. This will bring a 

mid-week minimum in precipitation chances. The mid-level ridge will 

push eastward towards the end of the work week, opening the region 

up to mid-level disturbances and increasing chances for rain.



Of much higher confidence is the increasing temperature trend from 

the weekend through the end of the work week under southwesterly low-

level flow establishes early next week. The interquartile spread for 

high temperatures is 3-5F through the seven day period and into next 

weekend, and shows an upward trend with highs pushing above

normal.



Delia



&&



.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move southwest across

east central Missouri and southwest Illinois this evening. The

convection is expected to weaken and finally dissipate through

early evening. Isolated MVFR/IFR visibilities in the heaviest

cells through 02Z. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions are expected

to prevail for most of the area through Friday. There are a few

models that develop ceilings AOB 1000ft AGL after 06Z tonight

across the eastern Ozarks. While confidence in this occurring is

low at this time, if low ceilings do develop they will likely

persist until mid morning Friday.



Carney



&&



.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

IL...None.

&&



$$



WFO LSX