FXUS63 KLSX 031651

AFDLSX



Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation

National Weather Service Saint Louis MO

1051 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- There is 20-40% chance for light snow with minor accumulations 

over south central Illinois this morning.



- There remains a 20% chance of light freezing drizzle or light snow 

over parts of southeast and east central Missouri as well as 

southwest Illinois that may produce very light and localized 

accretions/accumulations this morning.



- Mainly dry weather is expected with varying temperatures through 

the weekend with highs mostly above average after Wednesday.





&&



.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)

Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Main concern in the near term continues to be whether there will be 

any wintry precipitation through the morning hours.  Latest look at 

satellite imagery and surface observations are showing mainly mid 

and high clouds with the closest low clouds (ceilings around 4000 

feet) down over far southwest Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, and 

central Arkansas.  The surface analysis is showing a surface low 

over southwest Missouri with a warm front extending southeast into 

western Tennessee and a cold front southwest into central Oklahoma 

with a surface trough northeastward toward St. Louis and east 

central Illinois.  Recent runs of both the RAP and NAM have shown 

little saturation in the lows levels through this morning except at 

Salem, IL where we have kept the best chance for the wintry mix all 

along.  The NAM QPF has shifted east and out of the CWA over the 

past 24 hours.  In addition, the HREF probabilities for both snow 

and FRAM ice has also dropped, with the highest QPF being from the 

time lagged members.  The RAP is still showing the surface low 

moving east into far southern Illinois/western Kentucky by 18Z, so I 

still can't rule out that there won't be some light freezing drizzle 

or snow over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois this morning 

and as far north as the St. Louis metro.  If it does occur, I only 

expect localized areas seeing trace amounts of ice.  However, given 

current observations and model trends, I have lowered the chance to 

just 20% except over the far eastern part of the CWA where the 

NAM/RAP is still showing enough low-mid level frontogenesis to keep 

20-40% PoPs with up to 0.1" of accumulation. The precipitation is 

expected to exit the area this afternoon with mainly a partly sunny 

sky.  With the surface low moving to the east, winds will turn out 

of the north and highs will be mainly in the 30s causing highs to be 

cooler than yesterday, but still not as cold as last week. Lows 

tonight will be in the teens and lower 20s.



Britt



&&



.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday through Monday)

Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Mainly dry weather is still expected from Wednesday through the 

weekend as the LREF continues to show the upper pattern 

transitioning from northwest flow to a ridge building into Midwest 

by early next week.  Less than 20% of the LREF members are producing 

any precipitation over the CWA through next Monday even though a 

cold front is still forecast to move south through the area on 

Friday. Highs are only expected to be in the 20s and 30s on 

Wednesday, but then warm slowly back into the 40s and 50s ahead of 

the cold front by Friday.  



Britt



&&



.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)

Issued at 1051 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Dry and VFR flight conditions are most likely to persist through the 

TAF period with mainly low-VFR clouds overhead at times. Winds will 

be light (mainly <10 kt) and northerly through Wednesday.



Pfahler



&&



.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...None.

IL...None.

&&



$$



WFO LSX