FXUS63 KLSX 031053 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 453 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is 20-40% chance for light snow with minor accumulations over south central Illinois this morning. - There remains a 20% chance of light freezing drizzle or light snow over parts of southeast and east central Missouri as well as southwest Illinois that may produce very light and localized accretions/accumulations this morning. - Mainly dry weather is expected with varying temperatures through the weekend with highs mostly above average after Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Main concern in the near term continues to be whether there will be any wintry precipitation through the morning hours. Latest look at satellite imagery and surface observations are showing mainly mid and high clouds with the closest low clouds (ceilings around 4000 feet) down over far southwest Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, and central Arkansas. The surface analysis is showing a surface low over southwest Missouri with a warm front extending southeast into western Tennessee and a cold front southwest into central Oklahoma with a surface trough northeastward toward St. Louis and east central Illinois. Recent runs of both the RAP and NAM have shown little saturation in the lows levels through this morning except at Salem, IL where we have kept the best chance for the wintry mix all along. The NAM QPF has shifted east and out of the CWA over the past 24 hours. In addition, the HREF probabilities for both snow and FRAM ice has also dropped, with the highest QPF being from the time lagged members. The RAP is still showing the surface low moving east into far southern Illinois/western Kentucky by 18Z, so I still can't rule out that there won't be some light freezing drizzle or snow over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois this morning and as far north as the St. Louis metro. If it does occur, I only expect localized areas seeing trace amounts of ice. However, given current observations and model trends, I have lowered the chance to just 20% except over the far eastern part of the CWA where the NAM/RAP is still showing enough low-mid level frontogenesis to keep 20-40% PoPs with up to 0.1" of accumulation. The precipitation is expected to exit the area this afternoon with mainly a partly sunny sky. With the surface low moving to the east, winds will turn out of the north and highs will be mainly in the 30s causing highs to be cooler than yesterday, but still not as cold as last week. Lows tonight will be in the teens and lower 20s. Britt && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Mainly dry weather is still expected from Wednesday through the weekend as the LREF continues to show the upper pattern transitioning from northwest flow to a ridge building into Midwest by early next week. Less than 20% of the LREF members are producing any precipitation over the CWA through next Monday even though a cold front is still forecast to move south through the area on Friday. Highs are only expected to be in the 20s and 30s on Wednesday, but then warm slowly back into the 40s and 50s ahead of the cold front by Friday. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 444 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 The chance for light freezing drizzle and light snow is continuing to decrease with time as no precipitation or low clouds have developed over the area. While I can't rule out this scenario still developing, the chance has dropped below 20 percent, so I have already removed the PROB30 group already for -FZRASN. I also have raised ceilings from IFR to 2000 feet and pushed them back to between 16-20Z. Otherwise, expected mainly VFR conditions today with northerly winds at 10 knots or less. Britt && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX