FXUS63 KLOT 221738

AFDLOT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL

1238 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A passing cold front this morning will bring blustery 

  conditions and sharply colder temperatures to the area today.



- Cooler weather persists on Monday, before temperatures

  moderate into midweek.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



A cold front over southern Wisconsin and on the door-step of 

the state line will shift southward across the area through the 

morning and early afternoon, with a secondary cold front 

trailing the first front by a few hours. Current temps in the 

60s over the forecast area represent the calendar day highs 

today as temps tumble with the passage of the front, clearing at

least the I-80 corridor by sunrise and the remainder of the CWA

by noon. Conditions will become quite blustery with northeast 

gusts of around 30 mph advecting gradually colder conditions 

through the day. The temp change between Saturday afternoon and 

this afternoon will run some 35 to 40 degrees colder for 

northern Illinois. Additionally, low-level stratus and possibly 

patchy light drizzle should gradually build southward by this 

afternoon. A band of anafrontal precip associated with the 

entrance of a modest mid-level jet is expected to develop over 

or (most likely) east of the Chicago metro this afternoon. 



The center of a broad surface high will pass over or just north

of the forecast area Monday afternoon, with a lingering ridge 

extending westward over the area through Tuesday. Though skies 

should gradually clear through the day on Monday, highs inland 

will struggle to reach the upper 40s while highs near Lake 

Michigan will likely fail to reach 40F. Dry conditions will 

persist on Tuesday as southwest winds push temps into the 50s 

under a potentially thick cirrus canopy.



Overall WNW flow aloft will remain in place over the region 

midweek before a longwave trough builds across eastern Canada 

through the weekend. During this transition, a series of 

disturbances are progged to track across the Great Lakes region.

Collectively, they will sharpen a baroclinic zone that may 

waffle in the general vicinity before pushing across the CWA 

sometime on Thursday. There has been considerable flip-flopping 

from guidance during this period, so confidence on exact temp 

trends (dependent on frontal timing) and coverage of showers and

perhaps some storms remains lower at this time. Solutions with 

a slower frontal passage later on Thursday support another very 

warm day with a non-zero risk for strong to severe storms, 

though substantial capping from a strong EML may be present.



Regardless of the exact timing of Thursday's system, another 

cool but dry stretch is favored Friday into the weekend.



Kluber



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Key Messages:



- Gusty north-northeast winds of 25-35 kt continue into early

  this evening before gradually abating. 



- Low MVFR CIGs also expected to persist/move into area

  terminals through much of tonight.

 

North-northeast winds have been a bit stronger than previously 

anticipated, particularly at ORD and MDW, where some 

occasional gusts have exceeded 35 kt. While such gusts will 

continue to be possible this afternoon, thinking is that the 

more frequent gusts will be in the 30 to 35 kt range for the 

main Chicago area terminals, and more in the 25 to 30 kt range 

at KRFD and KDPA. The gustiness will gradually abate this 

evening. Lighter northerly winds will persist into Monday, then 

shift back to the northeast with a lake breeze Monday afternoon.



A rather expansive deck of MVFR stratus also continues to shift

southward into northern IL and northwestern IN early this

afternoon. Expect these CIGs to be the lowest (1,000-1,500 ft 

AGL) closer to the lake through the day, with most areas not 

scattering out until sometime later tonight or early Monday 

morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions should return for much of

the day Monday. 



KJB



&&



.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...None.

IN...None.

LM...Gale Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for the IL and IN 

     nearshore waters.



&&



$$



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