FXUS63 KLOT 221133

AFDLOT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL

633 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A passing cold front this morning will bring blustery 

  conditions and sharply colder temperatures to the area today.



- Cooler weather persists on Monday, before temperatures

  moderate into midweek.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



A cold front over southern Wisconsin and on the door-step of 

the state line will shift southward across the area through the 

morning and early afternoon, with a secondary cold front 

trailing the first front by a few hours. Current temps in the 

60s over the forecast area represent the calendar day highs 

today as temps tumble with the passage of the front, clearing at

least the I-80 corridor by sunrise and the remainder of the CWA

by noon. Conditions will become quite blustery with northeast 

gusts of around 30 mph advecting gradually colder conditions 

through the day. The temp change between Saturday afternoon and 

this afternoon will run some 35 to 40 degrees colder for 

northern Illinois. Additionally, low-level stratus and possibly 

patchy light drizzle should gradually build southward by this 

afternoon. A band of anafrontal precip associated with the 

entrance of a modest mid-level jet is expected to develop over 

or (most likely) east of the Chicago metro this afternoon. 



The center of a broad surface high will pass over or just north

of the forecast area Monday afternoon, with a lingering ridge 

extending westward over the area through Tuesday. Though skies 

should gradually clear through the day on Monday, highs inland 

will struggle to reach the upper 40s while highs near Lake 

Michigan will likely fail to reach 40F. Dry conditions will 

persist on Tuesday as southwest winds push temps into the 50s 

under a potentially thick cirrus canopy.



Overall WNW flow aloft will remain in place over the region 

midweek before a longwave trough builds across eastern Canada 

through the weekend. During this transition, a series of 

disturbances are progged to track across the Great Lakes region.

Collectively, they will sharpen a baroclinic zone that may 

waffle in the general vicinity before pushing across the CWA 

sometime on Thursday. There has been considerable flip-flopping 

from guidance during this period, so confidence on exact temp 

trends (dependent on frontal timing) and coverage of showers and

perhaps some storms remains lower at this time. Solutions with 

a slower frontal passage later on Thursday support another very 

warm day with a non-zero risk for strong to severe storms, 

though substantial capping from a strong EML may be present.



Regardless of the exact timing of Thursday's system, another 

cool but dry stretch is favored Friday into the weekend.



Kluber



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



- Gusty NNE winds expected today

- MVFR CIGS possible later this morning into the afternoon,

  especially closer to Lake Michigan



Look for north-northeast winds 15-25kt with occasional gusts 

over 30kt today. Winds and gustiness will likely begin to

gradually ease away from the lake this evening, but likely 

remaining gusty through the evening at ORD, MDW, and GYY. 



Only concern other than winds is the potential for MVFR CIGS 

today into tonight. The guidance that had been more aggressive 

with the CIGS has been backing on the likelihood of MVFR CIGS. 

Extensive mid-high level cloudiness obscures the lower stratus 

to our north, but observational trends do show stratus over 

northern lower Michigan developing/spreading southward along the

eastern shores of Lake Michigan. 



Forecast confidence in CIGS is very low today and even into 

this evening. The highest chances for MVFR CIGS will likely be 

close to the lake and have maintained MVFR at GYY beginning 

later this morning. At ORD and MDW, have backed off of MVFR due 

to lower confidence, but there is still a threat of MVFR CIGS 

for a time, especially this afternoon. We will continue to

closely monitor trends and may need to reintroduce MVFR CIGS 

if it becomes cleared based on observational trends that MVFR

will indeed impact ORD and MDW.



- Izzi



&&



.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...None.

IN...None.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for the IL 

     nearshore waters.



     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT 

     Monday for the IN nearshore waters.



&&



$$



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