FXUS63 KLOT 220755

AFDLOT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL

255 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A passing cold front this morning will bring blustery 

  conditions and sharply colder temperatures to the area today.



- Cooler weather persists on Monday, before temperatures

  moderate into midweek.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



A cold front over southern Wisconsin and on the door-step of 

the state line will shift southward across the area through the 

morning and early afternoon, with a secondary cold front 

trailing the first front by a few hours. Current temps in the 

60s over the forecast area represent the calendar day highs 

today as temps tumble with the passage of the front, clearing at

least the I-80 corridor by sunrise and the remainder of the CWA

by noon. Conditions will become quite blustery with northeast 

gusts of around 30 mph advecting gradually colder conditions 

through the day. The temp change between Saturday afternoon and 

this afternoon will run some 35 to 40 degrees colder for 

northern Illinois. Additionally, low-level stratus and possibly 

patchy light drizzle should gradually build southward by this 

afternoon. A band of anafrontal precip associated with the 

entrance of a modest mid-level jet is expected to develop over 

or (most likely) east of the Chicago metro this afternoon. 



The center of a broad surface high will pass over or just north

of the forecast area Monday afternoon, with a lingering ridge 

extending westward over the area through Tuesday. Though skies 

should gradually clear through the day on Monday, highs inland 

will struggle to reach the upper 40s while highs near Lake 

Michigan will likely fail to reach 40F. Dry conditions will 

persist on Tuesday as southwest winds push temps into the 50s 

under a potentially thick cirrus canopy.



Overall WNW flow aloft will remain in place over the region 

midweek before a longwave trough builds across eastern Canada 

through the weekend. During this transition, a series of 

disturbances are progged to track across the Great Lakes region.

Collectively, they will sharpen a baroclinic zone that may 

waffle in the general vicinity before pushing across the CWA 

sometime on Thursday. There has been considerable flip-flopping 

from guidance during this period, so confidence on exact temp 

trends (dependent on frontal timing) and coverage of showers and

perhaps some storms remains lower at this time. Solutions with 

a slower frontal passage later on Thursday support another very 

warm day with a non-zero risk for strong to severe storms, 

though substantial capping from a strong EML may be present.



Regardless of the exact timing of Thursday's system, another 

cool but dry stretch is favored Friday into the weekend.



Kluber



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



- Wind shift to gusty NNE expected early this morning with

  fairly strong and gusty winds expected to persist through the

  day. 

- MVFR CIGS probable, mainly near the lake, late this morning 

  through the afternoon. 



Lake enhanced cold front will sweep across the terminals early 

this morning resulting in wind shift to rather strong and gusty 

north-northeast. The strong NNE winds will persist through the 

day today at all terminals; probably remaining strong and gusty

into this evening for the terminals closer to the lake 

(ORD/MDW/GYY). Peak gusts occasionally to around 30kt are 

expected late this morning through the afternoon at ORD, MDW, 

and GYY.



Fairly dry air mass behind the front has thus far prevented any

stratus development, however, MVFR stratocumulus field is

expected to  develop later this morning into the afternoon. 

This will probably result in some MVFR CIGS, particularly closer

to Lake Michigan, though confidence in CIGS isn't terribly high

at this time.



- Izzi



&&



.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...None.

IN...None.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Monday 

     for the IL nearshore waters.



     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT 

     Monday for the IN nearshore waters.



&&



$$



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