FXUS63 KLMK 271916 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 316 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Light to moderate rain to diminish this evening with scattered showers expected on Tuesday. * Another upper level low will move through Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are expected, though some locally higher amounts are possible. * Temperatures will remain below normal this week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Closed upper level low continues to spin and slowly move eastward across north-central TN This afternoon. Observations across the region show mostly cloudy skies with temperatures in the lower to middle 50s. Area radars show light to moderate rain showers rotating north and northeastward across the region. Precipitation amounts have varied across the region with just a few hundredths up in the I-64 corridor, but down in the Cumberland Parkway corridor and points south, three quarters to one inch have fallen. For the remainder of the afternoon, the light rain will continue to move northward across the region, with temperatures falling back into the 40s. Overnight, the upper level low is forecast to weaken and ridging builds over the Great Lakes. This should allow precipitation to diminish from west to east. However, low clouds and some fog/mist will be possible. Overnight lows will likely be in the 45-50 degree range. For Tuesday, we'll be in a lull in the precipitation department as we'll be in between weather systems. A few scattered showers will be possible across the region, but it does not appear that Tuesday will be a washout by any means. Clouds will be abundant and hold temperatures down in the upper 50s over much of the region. Areas south of the Cumberland Parkway may be able to warm into the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 316 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Tuesday Night through Thursday Night... By Tuesday night, another strong upper level perturbation will close off across the eastern Plains and then roll through the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday and then lift into the Appalachians by Thursday morning. Rain will break out across the region Tuesday night and could be come locally heavy in spots on Wednesday as we could get some sort of deformation band to set up across Kentucky. Plentiful moisture will be available and additional moisture will be pumped into the region from the south. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches look likely across the region, though a few spots could see up to 3 inches, but those values look to be pretty isolated. Precipitation will gradually end from west to east by late Thursday night. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid-upper 40s with highs on Tuesday likely staying in the upper 40s with a few spots hitting 50. Lows Wednesday night will drop into the lower 40s with highs on Thursday warming back into the lower 50s. Thursday night lows will be a bit dependent on clearing, but upper 30s look likely in many areas. Friday through Monday... The upper level low will move northeast into New England on Friday bringing an end to our unsettled weather period. We'll remain in a northwesterly, but cyclonic flow aloft. Another perturbation looks to move into the region late Saturday and Sunday bringing another round of unsettled weather to the region. Drier and cooler weather looks to return to the region by Monday. Highs on Friday look to warm into the upper 50s to near 60 with overnight lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s. Saturday and Sunday should feature highs in the mid-upper 50s with lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s. A gradient of temperature looks likely on Monday with highs in the mid-upper 50s across the Bluegrass with lower 60s down in our south/southwest. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Upper level low will continue to move across the lower Ohio Valley today bringing light winds, plentiful low cloud cover and periods of light rain. In general a mix of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys are expected this afternoon. However, after dark, it appears that cigs will lower into the IFR range. Precipitation is expected to diminish overnight as well, but we'll likely keep some mist around with vsbys hanging in the upper end of the MVFR range. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM....MJ AVIATION.....MJ