FXUS63 KLMK 221143 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 743 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Unseasonably warm and breezy, with near record highs as temperatures warm into the low/mid 80s. * Strong to severe storms are possible Sunday evening/night, with a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) issued along and north of I-64. Hail and gusty winds are the primary severe hazards. * Cooler and mainly dry conditions are expected early next week. Milder temperatures and rain chances return by Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 523 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Near Record Warmth and the Potential for Strong to Severe Storms... A surface low and associated cold front currently stretching from Lake Huron to Nebraska will slowly drop southward and towards the Ohio River later today. Pressure gradient will gradually tighten up increasing our southwesterly winds. Winds will be sustained between 10-20 mph with gusts between 20-30 mph. This will advect in more moisture which will allow for dewpoints to climb into the upper 50s to near 60 later today and boost temperatures to near record levels, especially for Lexington and Frankfort. Highs will push into the low/mid 80s by the afternoon. The other main impact for today is the risk for strong to severe storms later this evening. Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to highlight our northern CWA in a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for areas along and north of the I-64 corridor. This includes most of Southern IN and parts of northern KY. As the cold front drops south and approaches the Ohio River later this afternoon, lift associated with the front will develop showers and thunderstorms. Model soundings continue to show steep mid-level lapse rates between 7.5-8 C/km and 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE along with effective bulk shear between 35-40kt. Which supports the potential for some discrete supercells as well as convective clusters closer to the approaching boundary. The main threats remain large hail and gusty winds but agree with the last forecaster that highlighted that the hail threat looks higher given the mid-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy supporting robust updrafts. The main limiting factor for all this remains a capped stable layer this afternoon. While this warm layer aloft is expected to weaken as the boundary drops into the CWA, it most likely will keep the convection elevated. While it isn't zero, the overall tornado threat looks very low, especially if the convection remains elevated. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 523 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Cold front is expected to clear out of the area by Monday morning and behind it will be significant cool down compared to where we were the day prior. Canadian high pressure building in behind the front help to advect in colder air. After highs in the low/mid 80s highs will be in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s. We slowly start to rebound on Tuesday with temperatures warming into the 60s but it will be chilly to start with lows in the 30s. Weather looks to remain dry through the middle of the week. Our next chance for showers looks to arrive with another cold front by Thursday with additional showers and thunderstorms. While we will see temperatures progressively warm back to near 80 by Thursday, the up and down nature of spring will result in cooler temperatures for Friday && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 743 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Cold front will drop south through Indiana towards the Ohio River today and arrive later this evening. As it approaches winds will increase as the pressure gradient tightens with gusty SW winds of 25-30kt. Other than the winds we will haveVFR flight categories. By this evening as the front approaches showers and storms will develop. Trend since the last forecast has seen this front and potential line of showers and storms be later in their arrival. This would keep showers and storms elevated and for locations like HNB/BWG/RGA might be enough of a stable atmosphere for this line of showers and storms to become more scattered and dissipate as it works further south. Front will lower CIGs and we could see some MVFR and marginal IFR flight categories towards the end of the forecast period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...BTN