FXUS63 KLMK 090742 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 342 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Cooler with clearing skies for the end of the week. * Pleasant and mostly dry for the weekend. * Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms expected for early next week as another slow moving disturbance moves through the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 341 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 The last of the precipitation has moved out of the CWA this morning as cold front and associated mid-level trough axis continue to push south. Winds will continue to become more north-northeasterly this morning and current nighttime physics satellite imagery shows some areas of low stratus over the Commonwealth of KY. These clouds will slowly clear from north to south through the rest of the early morning and into the mid morning. Very likely that by sunrise, we could have sunshine across southern IN and north-central KY while clouds linger from the Parkways southward. We will end the week dry and slightly cooler than yesterday thanks to drier and cooler air advecting in behind the cold front. Highs will be in the mid/upper 60s with a few low 70s. High pressure will continue to build in over the Ohio Valley for the weekend as the sfc boundary pushes southward across the Deep South. Amplified ridging develops over most of the central US as a cut-off low will remain nearly stationary over the Gulf Coast and Ark-La-Tex region. There is good agreement that we will have a nice, dry weekend across the area. Thanks to mainly clear skies Friday night, Saturday will start off on the chilly side with lows in the low/mid 40s but will warm into the low 70s on Saturday. Sunday will be warmer as sfc high pressure passing over the Great Lakes moves into the northeast US during the day. Clouds will also be on he increase as the aforementioned closed upper low starts to slowly drift northward and bring rain and thunderstorm chances back into he forecast for early next week. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 341 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 The closed/cutoff low over the Gulf Coast will slowly lift northward along the Mississippi River and into the Ohio Valley by the middle of the week. This will result in an active weather pattern with showers and thunderstorms. Each day through the middle of the week will feature scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours thanks to daytime heating and mid-level spokes of energy pinwheeling around the slow advancing closed low. Temperatures, will gradually warm up each day from the low 70s on Monday to the mid/upper 70s on Tuesday and reaching the upper 70s to near 80 by Wednesday as the closed works into the Great Lakes and gets picked up by the upper ridge over the eastern US. The upper ridge starts to build in toward the later part of the week. This should trend the forecast drier as the upper low will be well off to the NE by this time. Much warmer temps expected toward late week with mid 80s. Full sun and we could be looking at upper 80s for highs. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1212 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 Confidence in the forecast over he next 6 hours is relatively low as a weak sfc boundary and trough axis associated with what was once a closed upper low works across southern IN and Kentucky. While confidence is a little higher for LEX/SDF as for flight categories the most challenging location appears to be BWG give that it remains south of the boundary. For a couple hours overnight we could see MVFR flight categories for SDF/LEX just along the boundary. As the boundary drops south winds will remain NNE and we will slowly see skies break and clear from the north to the south. Do anticipate VFR flight categories to return in the morning with BWG holding on to IFR/MVFR flight categories for a period overnight into early morning then improving after sunrise. The main challenge for BWG will be timing. Once the clouds clear the forecast remains VFR for all TAF sites. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BTN LONG TERM...BTN AVIATION...BTN