FXUS63 KLMK 031706 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 106 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Less humid today with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. * Mostly sunny Independence Day, with afternoon highs in the low 90s. * Turning hot and humid again this weekend. Rain and thunderstorm chances return on late Sunday through mid next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 216 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Clear skies over the region at this hour and light winds has allowed for efficient cooling. Temperatures over the region are sitting in the 70s and on track to dropping into the mid 60 to upper 60s by sunrise. Troughing moving east over the Great Lakes is shedding some vorticity into the lower Ohio Valley. This will bring some mid-level clouds into the northern half of the region this morning. By late morning these clouds will burn off leaving skies mostly clear until a scattered Cu field develops in the afternoon. Ridging will build in from the west, which will help to increase temperatures a degree or two compared to yesterday. Convective temperatures this afternoon will be around 87/88F, and with the weak vorticity shedding in the region, wouldn't completely throw out a short-lived, isolated light shower later this afternoon. Very low confidence precip forecast with weak high pressure over the region. Tonight, skies will clear out and winds will become light. Ridging will continue to push over the region, which will keep low temperatures a few degrees warmer than the previous night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 216 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Independence Day - Saturday... Ridging aloft will continue to slowly push over the Ohio Valley at the end of the week. This will increase heights and therefore, temperatures each day. With mostly sunny skies, temperatures are forecasted to be in the low to mid 90s. Dew points will still remain mild, with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Given the Holiday weekend activities, it is a good reminder to find shade and hydrate, especially during peak heating of the day. At the surface, high pressure will slip off to the east allowing light winds to veer into the weekend. Sunday - Mid Next Week... Ridging aloft will deamplify and push off to the east as a trough moves into the Great Lakes region. This feature will send a cold front south into the Ohio Valley. High pressure will exit to the east allowing for the return of southwesterly flow and moisture. As the cold front approaches, it will begin to stall out over the lower Ohio Valley. This will keep shower and storm chances in the region through mid week. Not expecting severe storms at this time, due to the shear remaining north of the region. PWATs will be around 2.0 inches, so could see some heavy rain at times. Through Thursday, ensembles are showing only a 30-40% of exceeding 1.25 inches of rainfall and a 15% chance of exceeding 1.5 inches. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s and low 90s during this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 105 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 VFR conditions expected through the valid TAF period, with sct-bkn cu this afternoon. Light north winds this afternoon will decouple quickly at sunset. High pressure will then pass to our north, setting up light easterly winds by late morning Friday. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRW LONG TERM...SRW AVIATION...RAS