FXUS63 KLBF 272320 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 620 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected along a cold front this evening. No severe weather is anticipated with this activity. - Gusty northwest winds and low humidity may lead to elevated fire weather concerns Tuesday afternoon across the area. - Dry conditions and slightly below average temperatures (highs in low to middle 50s) are then expected for middle and late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Currently, a surface trough has progressed eastward to near the HWY 61 corridor, with strong west winds in its wake. Much drier air is also in place behind this surface trough, leading to locally elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. Further east, persistent cloudiness has kept temperatures in the low to middle 50s, along with instances of drizzle. For this evening, the primary concern will be a threat for precipitation in association with an approaching cold front. This front, currently located across western South Dakota, will continue to push quickly southeastward into the area this evening. The front is in association with broad surface low pressure, progged to eject east across the Plains today. As this front crosses the area, scattered to widespread shower development is expected. Forecast soundings continue to show at least meager MUCAPE in place, and an embedded thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. That said, no severe weather is expected across the area this evening. These showers will quickly push across the area from west to east, exiting tonight. Accumulations of 0.10-0.25" are possible, mainly across portions of southwest into central and north central Nebraska.In addition to the precipitation, gusty northwest winds can be expected with the passage of the cold front. Increasing cold advection should promote enough mechanical mixing to keep winds breezy through much of the overnight hours tonight. As the cold front exits off to the east of the area tonight, shortwave ridging will translate into the Plains aloft. This leads to increasing subsidence aloft, and should lead to clearing skies tomorrow morning. This will bring a return of sun to portions of the area that have been cloudy much of the past few days. The strong northwest winds will also persist, as surface low pressure quickly deepens over the mid-South. At the same time, strong surface high pressure will begin to spill southward into the northern Rockies. This positions the local area in a constricting surface pressure gradient, and will promote strengthening northwest winds tomorrow afternoon. Gusts of 35 to 45 miles per hour will be possible tomorrow afternoon as mixing occurs (both diurnally and mechanically). Unfortunately, these strong northwest winds will combine with humidity values falling into the upper 20s to low 30s. This is despite high temperatures only in the upper 40s to low 50s, and could lead to elevated fire concerns across the area tomorrow. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Dry conditions look to prevail through much of the long term period, as persistent northwest flow establishes aloft for middle and late week. This is as upper ridging amplifies across the western US and deep troughing persists across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below average into late week, with highs generally in the low/middle 50s and lows in the 20s. Some moderation in temperatures is possible by the weekend, as the aforementioned upper ridge axis begins to slowly progress east into the Plains. This could bring a return of highs in the 60s as we turn the calendar to November. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Ceilings will continue to lift into the evening hours at both the KLBF and KVTN terminals. Overnight, expect ceilings ranging from 3000 to 5000 FT AGL at the KLBF terminal and from 6000 to 9000 FT AGL at the KVTN terminal. Gusty winds will develop behind an exiting cold front tonight. Winds will gust up to around 20 KTS at the KLBF terminal and around 20 to 25 KTS at the KVTN terminal. Northwest winds will become stronger Tuesday across the area with wind gusts approaching 35 KTS during the afternoon. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...Buttler