FXUS63 KLBF 270908 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 408 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Somewhat elevated fire weather concerns develop this afternoon across the western Sandhills and the Panhandle. - Showers will become more widespread late this afternoon into tonight as a cold front crosses the area. - Windy conditions can be expected Tuesday into early Wednesday behind the cold front. - Chilly temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will moderate, with highs back into the 60s this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 An upper trough will begin to amplify across the northern Rockies today. Downstream an area of surface low pressure will deepen across western South Dakota. Large scale lift has already begun to overspread the western high plains ahead of this trough. Scattered areas of precipitation are noted on the radar early this morning across eastern Colorado up through western South Dakota. A dry layer in the mid-levels of the atmosphere has so far prevented any of this activity from reaching the ground. Meanwhile, low-level moisture/cloudiness, along with patchy fog, continue to persist across much of Nebraska southward into Kansas. As the western South Dakota low deepens and begins to track northeastward through the day, south winds will continue for areas east of the Panhandle. As a result, low-level moisture will continue to advect into the area with the lower cloud deck expected to remain. This will hold high temperatures to the mid and upper 50s. A cold front will sweep into the Panhandle this afternoon as the surface low across South Dakota begins to eject northeast. Gusty west-northwest winds develop behind the front. Some concern for elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon as humidity drops to around 30%, along with the gusty west-northwest winds and temperatures warming into the 60s. As far as precipitation chances, this morning will continue only a slight chance as there is just too much dry air aloft to overcome. As the cold front begins to surge southeastward late this afternoon into this evening, expect a somewhat better chance for rainfall. A band of strong mid-level FGEN will develop just behind the front, and as favorable jet dynamics swing across the area, showers should blossom just behind the boundary. Did not include thunder as chances look very slight, but there is a non-zero chance for an isolated lightning strike or two. Winds will increase from the northwest as the front passes through this evening. The upper trough digs southeastward and closes off at H5 across Nebraska Tuesday. Strong northwest winds are expected through the day Tuesday and into Tuesday night. A modest surface low will be located across the lower Mississippi Valley region ahead of the system. This coupled with strong high pressure across the Rockies will result in strong northwest winds across the central plains. Area sounding profile samples suggests gusts in the 35-45 mph range will be common from late Tuesday morning through the afternoon. Winds do decouple some Tuesday night but will remain breezy. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 The system is fairly progressive, with the H5 upper low center located across Tennessee by Wednesday afternoon. Somewhat gusty northwest winds will likely carry into Wednesday morning...before diminishing Wednesday afternoon as the surface high builds in from the Rockies. This will lead to what will likely be the coldest lows so far this season, with widespread mid to upper 20s expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Northwest flow aloft looks to dominate as we head into Thursday and the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will moderate with highs back into the 60s by Saturday and Sunday. Dry conditions can be expected, which is typical in a northwest flow pattern this time of year. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 For the KLBF terminal: Expect IFR ceilings through early afternoon Monday with ceilings below 1000 FT AGL. Some LIFR ceilings as low as 300 FT AGL are possible overnight through mid morning Monday. Ceilings will improve to 2500 to 6000 FT AGL after 22z Monday. For the KVTN terminal: Expect MVFR ceilings through mid afternoon Monday with ceilings ranging from 1000 to 2500 FT AGL. VFR ceilings are expected after 17z Monday with heights ranging from 2500 to 7000 FT AGL. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Richie LONG TERM...Richie AVIATION...Buttler