FXUS63 KLBF 090546 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1246 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry conditions and a gradual warming trend is expected Friday and into the weekend. Only small areas of 20% chances of rain are over the far south this afternoon, and over the far NW Friday afternoon. - Fire weather will become an increasing concern Sunday into Monday due to substantially stronger southerly winds amidst continued warm/hot temperatures and low humidity. - Pattern may try to turn more active towards the middle of the next week, but confidence on details is low. Some long range data hints at a stronger signal for moisture in ~10 days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 415 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Vast majority of this period will be dry for the vast majority of the region. The only caveats to this are the potential for spotty/brief showers over far S zones this afternoon, and perhaps another slight chance over far NW Friday afternoon. Otherwise, expect gorgeous spring weather with pleasant temperatures, a good amount of sunshine, and relatively light winds. Expect a solid 5-6 deg jump in high temps between today and Fri, with highs on both Fri and Sat expected to peak in the low to mid 80s. Most areas should see lows in the 40s...although similar to last night, a few of the favored cold spots could briefly dip into the upper 30s. Winds will be light again tonight and Fri night, but what little wind there will be will have a westerly component to it...so maybe that helps prevent the patchy ground fog like we saw this morning. Always tough to pin that down, though. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 415 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Warm and increasingly-windy conditions, and likely return of fire weather concerns, is the main story for the Sunday-Monday time frame as a ridge of high pressure dominates aloft. High temperatures on the latest NBM favor mid-80s for most of the area both days, but some model guidance is trending towards warmer upper 80s to lower 90s, at least in spots. Southerly breezes ramp up considerably for both Sun and Mon and will be solidly in the "windy" category at 20-30 MPH sustained, and gusts 30-40 MPH. See fire weather section below for more details. Upper flow turns southwesterly early next week in advance of the next large- scale trough gradually organizing/approaching from the western United States. Most model data remains dry Mon and Tue, but the latest NBM has maintained some low- confidence slight thunderstorm chances mainly over the northwest 1/3 of the CWA for Monday evening. Although subject to the usual/plentiful uncertainties of a Day 6-7 forecast, the latest ECMWF/GFS remain in decent agreement that the aforementioned western trough will eject-northeastward toward/into the Plains, sometime around the middle of next week. However, it appears the main energy will take aim to the NW/N over the Dakotas. Latest NBM guidance continues to support fairly widespread, but low end (20-40%), rain chances Tuesday night into Thursday, but the northern track combined with lackluster moisture return could easily leave much of our area with a minimal amount of activity (especially southern zones). While it's May and a severe storm threat is difficult to totally rule out with a strong system like this, fully agree with SPC in keeping "predictability too low" in their latest Day 4-8 severe outlook. Even if a thunderstorm threat is muted, there may be continued fire weather concerns into Wednesday depending on strength of winds and how much low- level drying occurs behind the passing boundary. Lastly, Wednesday also carries a rather uncertain temperature forecast due to model differences in frontal timing, with a solid 15 degree gradient in highs ranging from upper 60s far northwest to lower 80s far east. Longer range model guidance hints at a potentially "wetter" period in about 10 days that would tend to favor S/E portions of the forecast area more than the NW. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska through the day today. Winds will be light, generally 10 kts or less. Other than some increase high level cloudiness skies will be clear. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Thies LONG TERM...Thies AVIATION...Taylor