FXUS63 KLBF 031735 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm conditions in the low 90s today. - Showers and thunderstorms likely Friday into Friday evening. Although isolated hail and strong winds are possible, locally heavy rain and lightning will be the main concerns for Independence Day celebrations. - Thunderstorm chances continue Saturday night through Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 An upper ridge will remain centered over the Texas Gulf Coast with an upper ridge in place over the the Northern and Central Plains today. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the Desert Southwest will advance into the Four Corners region late day. With surface low pressure deepening across eastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado, the surface pressure gradient and H7 gradient will tighten up today. this will bring breezy conditions with southerly winds at 15 to 25 mph. Highs today will be very similar to yesterday from 90 to 95 degrees. Deterministic models and the latest CAMs keep western Nebraska dry Thursday evening, with a slight chance across the southeast Panhandle and southwest Nebraska after midnight. The latest deterministic and CAMs continues to point toward a higher probability of scattered to even numerous thunderstorm development Friday into Friday evening as an upper trough crosses the region. PWATs are forecast to increase to 1.5 to over 1.75 inches. Soundings shows a tall skinny CAPE supportive of heavy rainfall potential. The 00Z HREF 75th percentile 6-hr precipitation amounts from 0.5 inch to around 1.25 inches between highway 83 and 183 Friday afternoon. SPC expanded a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) southward to include areas east of Valentine through North Platte. This is the result of increasing shear along and east of the advancing surface trough during the afternoon and evening. Convection appears to quickly develop by early afternoon along this southwest to northeast oriented trough. Although frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall are most likely with the heavier storms, isolated strong wind gusts and hail up to one inch diameter are also possible. WPC also is forecasting a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for areas east of an Imperial through North Platte and O'Neill line. Timing of showers and storms favor the daytime Friday, lasting in the evening, especially east of an Ainsworth through North Platte line, which may unfortunately impact holiday celebrations. Stay tuned to later forecasts as models come into better agreement on storm coverage and impacts. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 347 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 There should be a break in thunderstorms Saturday with dry conditions expected in the wake of the system Friday night. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Storm chances return Saturday night with zonal flow aloft. An upper ridge over the Four Corners region on Sunday will strengthen and slowly expand northward through Wednesday. The upper flow will remain fairly zonal on Sunday, but become northwesterly Monday through Wednesday. This will continue to bring daily chances for thunderstorms, especially during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours. Highs in the mid 80s Sunday and Monday warm into the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday and Wednesday with humid conditions each day. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will be breezy over the next 24 hours, out of the south, around 10 to 15 kts with gust up to 25kts. Mid level clouds will move in late Friday morning. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Gomez