FXUS63 KLBF 021716 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm conditions today and Thursday. - The next significant chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives on Friday into Friday night. No severe storms are expected, although locally heavy rain and lightning will be the main concerns for Independence Day celebrations. - Thunderstorm chances continue Saturday night through Tuesday. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A system with showers and thunderstorms tracked across the Sandhills Tuesday evening into the early morning hours today and was currently tracking east of central Nebraska. Rainfall amounts from quarter to a half inch with a few locations over three quarter of an inch have been reported. Skies have cleared out across western Nebraska with temperatures in the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 An upper ridge will remain centered over the Texas Gulf Coast with the upper ridge building into the Northern and Central Plains today. This will bring warm air advection and sunny skies across the region with highs today across the area reaching 92 to 96 degrees. With surface low pressure deepening across Wyoming and Colorado, another day of southerly winds 10 to 15 mph. The upper ridge influence will keep dry conditions across the forecast area through tonight. Thursday, the upper ridge will still remain in place across the region, although an upper trough will advance across the Central and Southern Rockies. A tighter H7 gradient will bring stronger southerly winds from 15 to 30 mph. Still very warm with highs in the lower 90s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Deterministic models keep western Nebraska mainly dry Thursday evening, with mostly a slight chance overnight. Southwest flow aloft and modest instability 500-1000 J/kg exist, though deep layer shear is weak at only 5 to 15 kts. Therefore, only general thunderstorms are possible and coverage looks isolated across the west. The latest guidance continues to point toward a higher probability of scattered thunderstorm development on Friday and Friday night as an upper trough and Pacific cold front crosses the region. PWATs are forecast to increase to 1.5 to over 1.75 inches. An NBM probabilities over a half inch range from 25 to 35 percent for the 12-hr period Friday afternoon and evening for areas east of Ogallala through O'Neill. The severe potential looks low at this time with general thunderstorms forecast by SPC. Coverage will likely be scattered, with lightning and locally heavy rainfall possible with the heavier storms. Timing of storms favor the late afternoon and into the evening which may unfortunately impact holiday celebrations. Stay tuned to later forecasts as models come into better agreement on storm coverage and impacts. There should be a break in thunderstorms Saturday with dry conditions expected in the wake of the system Friday night. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Storm chances return Saturday night through Tuesday with Gulf moisture in place as the upper flow remains fairly zonal. Highs from the mid 80s to low 90s and humid conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Outside of a few high clouds approaching VTN, skies are expected to remain clear to mostly clear. LLWS concerns increase tonight, particularly for VTN, as a LLJ increases off the surface. Will add a mention to the prevailing forecast to account for this but believe this threat should remain north of LBF. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Roberg SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...NMJ