FXUS63 KIWX 271841 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 241 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably cool temperatures will persist over the next 7 days. - A period of light rain possible Wednesday night into Thursday, best chances south of US 24 (40-60%). - Scattered lake enhanced rain showers possible at times Friday into this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Dry and seasonably cool low level easterly flow will persist through Wednesday under an impressive high latitude blocking ridge over southeast Canada and the northern Great Lakes. This rex block forces an incoming pacific jet and developing upper low southeast into the western OH/TN Valleys by Wednesday, while a piece of a Northeast US upper low retrogrades west on its northern fringe. 12z ensemble and deterministic model guidance held pretty close overall to the last several runs increasing forecast confidence in a blossoming deformation/fgen rain band mainly passing southwest and then south of the area Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The outlier ensemble solutions are for lighter rain to possibly get into southern portions of our CWA during this time with slight chance PoPs retained here. The organizing sfc reflection after the phasing into one upper low does eventually make its northward turn near the spine of the Appalachians into Thursday and Thursday night with widespread deformation rain on the backside possibly clipping areas south of US 24 (best chances near Lima OH). Still some wiggle room at this range for adjustments in the track and intensity. Remaining cool with periodic chances for scattered lake enhanced showers otherwise into Friday and the upcoming weekend with unsettled cyclonic northwest flow locked in behind the mid-late week system. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 127 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Dry air resides north of an upper low moving through the Tennessee River Valley with east winds through this TAF period. Given the gradient between surface high pressure to the north and this low to the south, sustained winds around expected to reside around 10 kts this afternoon and into the evening before picking up again Tuesday. Gusts up to around 20 kts will also be possible, especially during peak heating. High clouds will be around north of the low to the south, but that dry air should allow for prevailing VFR conditions through the period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...Roller