FXUS63 KIWX 270527 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 127 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably cool and dry weather continues through Tuesday. - Rain is possible (30-60%) at times Wednesday through Friday with cool temperatures continuing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Seasonably cool temperatures and dry low level easterly flow to persist through Tuesday on the southern fringes of a prominent upper ridge. The low level height gradient does tighten a bit into Monday and Tuesday with diurnally driven gusts approaching 20 mph. Skies will generally trend mostly clear to partly cloudy otherwise as some mid-high level cloud cover sneaks in at times on the northern periphery of a weak low meandering east into the TN Valley. Model guidance agrees on an incoming northern pacific jet closing off an upper low into the western OH/TN Valleys Tuesday night through Wednesday night. This feature then interacts in some fashion with a Northeast CONUS upper low and lifts northward with some deepening to the sfc reflection noted in guidance Thursday into early Friday. The 12z trend overall was toward the farther south and east solution with more appreciable rainfall within the system deformation axis pivoting around the area (drier). Still plenty of spread in ensembles given the uncertainties in these upper low mergers. Thus, opted not to deviate from NBM broadbrush chance PoPs mid-late week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 A blocking pattern in place in the form of a northern latitude upper ridge across Great Lakes/Ontario and a southern latitude cut-off low across the Lower MS Valley will prevent any low and mid level moisture of note from working northward into the area today. A pocket of dry low level air should advect westward across the western Great Lakes region today keeping mainly clear skies in place outside of some patchy high level cloudiness. The deep easterly flow in this blocking pattern and mixing up to 4-5k feet will promote another late morning/afternoon of stronger east gusts to 18-23KT. Gusts should diminish a bit tonight, but magnitude of low level winds also increases slightly that could partially offset loss of better diurnal mixing. VFR conditions will hold through this forecast valid period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...Marsili