FXUS63 KIWX 221720 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 120 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers are likely this evening with a few storms possible south of US-24. Severe weather is not expected but some small hail can't be ruled out. - Highs drop into the 40s on Monday but slowly recover back to the 70s by Thursday. - After today, the next chance of rain is not until Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Surface cold front currently draped generally along the US-24 corridor and will continue to slowly push south through the evening. Not much has changed regarding the thunderstorm potential this evening. Strong inversion around 800-750mb is effectively capping any convection with even cu being highly limited. A secondary shortwave will approach the region this evening and associated height falls/CAA will eventually weaken and saturate this inversion with some residual MUCAPE given steep midlevel lapse rates. Tightening thermal gradient/fgen within and just below this unstable layer will supporting expanding showers after 21Z and perhaps a few storms developing south of US-24 around 00Z. However, sfc-850mb CAA will already be well underway across even our far SE by this point and a very stable profile below 850mb will significantly limit any potential damaging winds or tornadoes. Still can't rule out some small hail but MUCAPE values are 500-1000 J/kg at best so even that should be limited. Better chances exist just outside our CWA. Any storms that do develop in our area will quickly exit and expect dry conditions everywhere by 03-04Z. Lows tonight drop to around 30F in strong CAA with highs tomorrow holding in the 40s (even some upper 30s near the lake). Temps slowly recover Tue-Thu as Canadian surface high drifts across the region and return flow gradually ramps up on the backside. A very similar system is then expected on Thu with a brief period of strong WAA pushing highs into the 70s followed by a quick drop back to March reality for Friday. Rain and thunderstorms likely at some point with the best chances probably along the cold front late Thu evening. Still a lot of details to work out regarding exact precip timing and amounts though. The severe threat currently appears limited due to poor instability profiles but that could change as details are narrowed down in the coming days. Return to dry/quiet weather anticipated for next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1151 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Sfc cold front should be just through KFWA by issuance with northerly winds picking up at both sites this afternoon into this evening. Showers are still expected to develop along the mid level portion of the frontal system at KSBN 21-01z, and 23-02z at KFWA. There remains an outside chance for embedded thunder at KFWA during this time. Cigs likely lower into MVFR otherwise tonight with northerly winds diminishing a bit. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGD AVIATION...Steinwedel