FXUS63 KIWX 221031 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 631 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 30-60 percent chance of showers today, mainly from late morning into the afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible south of US-24, but severe weather is not expected. - Highs drop into the 40s for Monday but slowly climb back to the 60s and 70s by Thursday. - Dry conditions are expected Monday through Wednesday but additional rain is likely on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Warm front has pushed NE of the forecast area with temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s (yes, it is still March). Enjoy it while it lasts as a cold front, which currently extends from east central Wisconsin to NE Iowa, drops southeast over the next several hours, reaching NW parts of the area near or just before 12Z. The front will continue southeast through the morning, but slow its progress initially as a disturbances move along the boundary prior to the arrival of the main northern stream wave which will usher in much cooler (more seasonable) air. A large temperatures gradient will set up with a 25 to maybe 35 degree difference from NW to SE. LLJ will ramp up late morning into the afternoon ahead of the front, with a window of warmup looking more likely as highs make a run into the mid to upper 70s before the front arrives. Moisture will remain rather limited (low to mid 50 dewpoints), but a pocket of steeper mid- level lapse rates, combined with the increased flow and lift along the front should allow for a line of showers and maybe a few storms to develop with the greatest chances for thunder near/south of US-24. SPC DY1 outlook has nudged the marginal risk for severe storms a bit NW, coincident with the area of best heating and moisture return. IF something was to happen it would be a very narrow window later this afternoon, with locally gusty winds and small hail possible. Another item of note will be a increase in winds both near and behind the front as some of the stronger low level winds mix down with some gusts maybe to 30 mph. The shot of colder air behind the front will be rather short lived as the trough ejects away from the region and an upper level ridge over the SW US moves east with heights slowly increasing. This will bring a return to above normal and eventually one more push of much above normal temperatures by Thursday with highs back into the 60s and 70s. Another northern stream wave and cold front will arrive in the afternoon and evening hours to bring a chance for showers (thunderstorms?) followed by, you guessed it, a return to near or below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 631 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 A boundary has already pushed through SBN this morning turning their winds to more northwesterly. That boundary is one that is expected to slowly slink southeastward today. It'll be in the vicinity of FWA this afternoon and evening and models appear to initiate storms in that area. There has been some disagreement with where exactly it ends up so will include a PROB30 group for thunder at FWA for this issuance. After that, stratus is able to work into the area, but there could be some delay with it at the TAF sites since the better cold air is delayed getting into the area. Some breezy winds 20-25 kts will be possible this afternoon into the overnight, stronger at SBN than FWA. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Roller