FXUS63 KIWX 050704 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 204 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy drizzle and showers at times, especially this afternoon. Not as warm with highs only in the 50s. - Lake effect rain tonight through Friday, tapering off Saturday morning. - Seasonably cold this weekend with highs in the 50s. Cold Sunday morning with lows near freezing. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 A 996mb low swirls over the UP this morning (bringing much needed rain to a drought-striken area), with a secondary shortwave trough aloft digging into extreme eastern Iowa. This has spawned a fairly widespread area of rain and drizzle upstream. This feature is still digging south-southeast this hour but is expected to lift northeast this afternoon. As it does so, scattered showers will move through for the afternoon. Remaining somewhat breezy once more with a modest pressure gradient still in play. Temperatures only in the 50s today with only modest cold air advection noted aloft due to boundary- parallel flow. However, a strong push of CAA rushes in this evening/tonight as the primary trough axis (digging in through Minnesota this morning) sweeps through. This CAA and lift promotes widespread showers followed by lake effect rain showers. If you're a snow lover, this is truly a waste of what would otherwise be an impressive lake effect snow set up. High resolution CAMS suggest QPF through the event of 0.30-0.50". Equilibrium levels crest at nearly 9,000 ft, indicative of excellent lake induced lift. A single band of rain is anticipated late Thursday night through Friday night that follows the eastern shore and wavers over La Porte and western St. Joseph (IN) counties. Lake effect comes to and end Saturday morning as equilibrium levels fall in response to rising heights aloft with the parent trough moving off. Compared to recent temperatures, very cold early Sunday morning in the wake of this system as skies clear and high pressure descends over the Great Lakes. Lows will be near freezing which is just shy of normal: 35 degrees. Over the course of next week, a classic sine wave pattern takes shape at 500mb with a towering Central US ridge bookended by troughs. We'll be on the edge of seasonably cool northwest flow. If northwest flow wins out, we could see episodes of light rain (though Pacific moisture transport is poor). Alternatively, mild and dry conditions could prevail if the ridge to our west shifts east late in the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 In the wake of the cold front passage yesterday we will continue to see mainly MVFR cigs with a few lower clouds and sprinkles/drizzle at times through the overnight hours. Some drier air does begin to push into the region by late morning and early afternoon which will allow for some improvement to cigs but look to remain MVFR ahead of the next disturbance that moves through from the northwest and spread southeast later tonight after 20z Thu. Westerly winds will back to more northerly through the TAF period with gusts around 20kts expected. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Brown AVIATION...Andersen