FXUS63 KIWX 031027

AFDIWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Northern Indiana

627 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Slight chance (15-20%) for a stray shower or storm this

  afternoon and evening. 



- Hot and humid Friday into this weekend. 



- Somewhat better chances for showers and storms (40-50%) 

  return Sunday into Monday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025



The region will continue to be impacted by weak disturbances

into this evening with upper level heights slowly building

overnight into the start of the weekend. As noted this past

evening, a moderately unstable environment will be in place with

MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/KG range along with steep low level

lapse rates and inverted V soundings (DCAPE 900-1200 J/KG). A

lack of clear triggers will result in another day of very

isolated convective development that can form on any boundaries

(lake breeze or remnant outflows from evening convection) or

that move in from upstream. No more than slgt chc pops are

warranted at this point mainly in the 20 to 24Z time frame.

HRRR, which handled the evening scenario, does suggest some

convection could persist in SW areas through 3 or 4Z but for now

have not extended pops. 



As noted, upper level ridging will expand northeast Fri into

Saturday with afternoon highs reaching their peak with highs

likely into the 90s. Some signals exist in a few models that

mixing of slightly lower dewpoints could occur each afternoon

that would subsequently limit impacts from heat indices, but

could also allow highs in some areas to overachieve. Have kept

status quo for now and defer to later shifts to watch trends. 



The next trough will begin to edge in for Sunday and Monday

bringing somewhat better chances for showers and storms. Model

blends have backed off from likely pops as overall setup is

similar to earlier this week with what will probably be limited

coverage for the area and some seeing little rainfall. 



Temperatures trend back down somewhat for next week with highs

back into the low to mid 80s and somewhat lower dewpoints with

the NW flow re-establishing as well as a series of weak

disturbances to bring periodic, diurnal chances for

showers/storms.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 626 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025



VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Light and

mainly variable winds will become north-northwesterly during the

day. Diurnal cumulus also will develop aoa 5 kft during the 

daytime. A low confidence for an isolated shower/thunderstorm 

especially for KSBN after 18z, but have opted to leave out of 

TAF forecast with the large uncertainty with the mainly pop-up 

scenario in place.



&&



.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IN...None.

OH...None.

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Fisher

AVIATION...Andersen